NBA Bet of the Day | January 17, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 124-76-3, +37.99u
RECAP: We took the day off yesterday to cleanse our palette. Last time though, our NBA of the Day hit, but it was definitely a sweater, as the Celtics actually fell behind early in the 3rd quarter. I thought it was going to be another thwarting by the Toronto Raptors, but the Celtics turned it on in the fourth quarter, and we hit a nice cash to get back on track. We lost our only PRO play to fall to 1-1 on the day, though.

January 17, 2024

We love going against the grain here at NBA of the Day, and while the signs all point to the Milwaukee Bucks being able to put up big time points, the Cavaliers stand in their way as the home team, waiting to get Milwaukee to play their style of basketball.

The Bucks are heading to the city of Cleveland to take on the Cavs, led by Donovan Mitchell, who are +4 underdogs to one of the best teams in the East. Most would anticipate this line being a little bit farther away, but these matchups are always pretty close. 

In the last two matchups between these two East titans, the Bucks have actually been brought down a peg, going 5-5 over their last ten matchups. In fact, the past two matchups have been really close, with a game in December ending in an 8-point win for the Bucks. But we aren’t looking at who is going to win - we’re looking at who is going to play some defense today. 

This line opened at O/U 238.5, and has since dropped two points on the total, landing at a cool 236.5. While the total has fluctuated a bit, we’re seeing some significant numbers on the money handles of this game - only 33% of the total bets on this game are on the under, but 69% of the money on this game is landing on defense to be played well - giving us an opportunity of 36% difference between those two stages. 

And it doesn’t come unwarranted, with the previous game this season flying below the 242 number. Over their last five games, Cleveland has been playing by far their best defense of the year, ranking in the top three in nearly every defensive statistic available. While the Bucks have still been high-powered, the Cavs are only allowing 99 points per game over their last five - good for best in the league by a wide margin, considering league average is 115. 

Both of these teams are really, really great on the boards and limit their turnovers, creating half-court opportunities that slow the game down. If Cleveland’s defense can come to play, we’ve got a significant advantage on this play. 

Let’s take the under and look for Cleveland’s superior defense to shine once again, as they’ve been really, really disciplined, and could stifle the manpower of the Milwaukee Bucks. Take the under, even if it seems daunting.

PICK: Milwaukee/Cleveland under 236.5

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!