NBA Bet of the Day | January 13, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 120-72-2, +38.38u
RECAP: We definitely had our haters in this latest NBA of the Day, including a few DM’s saying that there’s no way this play was going to hit – and nevertheless, it was sweat-free the entire way as the 76ers not only showed value, but absolutely dominated against a tough Sacramento team. We went 2-1 on the day overall for an increase of .79 units. Let’s keep it rolling today in another huge slate.

January 13, 2024

Boston and Houston are facing off tonight in what many expect to be a blowout by most measures, with the line hovering around 16. The Rockets are one of the worst teams in the entire league on the road, and the Boston Celtics have yet to lose at home this season. That means that we should hammer the C’s, right? Nope. Let’s head elsewhere to look at what we’re seeing with the total in this game. 

This line opened up at an O/U of 230, and has slowly been dropping throughout the evening into this morning. Right now it’s at 229, and at some books,we’re even seeing 228.5. That means that there’s good, consistent line movement on the under in this game. 

And that’s just one piece of the puzzle. The Boston Celtics are a really good overs team - in fact, they’re 20-17-1 on the over on the year. Yet, as a home favorite, they’re just 10-8 on the over, and Houston has an absolutely abysmal offensive unit.

Finally, the money handles are pushing us in the direction of an under as well. We’re seeing a mere 40% of the handle on the under, but 77% of the bets coming in, hammering the total down. I got it at 229. 

And it doesn’t come without precedence. Houston is historically an under-based team this year, and this matchup has bred unders in 80% of their last ten matchups against each other. The Celtics allow the fifth-least amount of points at home this season, allowing just over 108 per game. Houston’s defense on the road has been really stellar as well, allowing 116 points per game, good for 15th in the league - we’re looking at two top defenses going against each other. 

We all know about blowout potential too, with blowouts seemingly always hitting the under. With this spread this large, we’re going to be seeing starters pulled, and a shortage of points in the final half of this game. Even if they get off to a hot start, look for an unders line that fits what you’d like. I love the 229, and so that’s where I’m going to settle – let’s take the under in a game that should be a blowout, between two defenses that can really carry their teams.

PICK: Houston / Boston under 229

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