NBA Bet of the Day | January 12, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 118-71-2, +37.59u
RECAP: Never ever in the history of NBA of the Day has a play gone as poorly as last night’s pick, with the Blazers taking on the OKC Thunder. The Blazers lost by 62 points, making it one of the worst losses in NBA history, and let me tell you, we were on the wrong side of history. Hey, we only lost our bet by like, 50 though!

January 12, 2024

Tonight we have a matchup that we don’t get to see too often, as the Sacramento Kings are traveling across the country to visit the Philadelphia 76ers on their home court. While these two teams are vying for playoff contention, the home team is going to be without their anchor, Joel Embiid. This made the line drop considerably, but then truthfully, head in an odd direction. Let’s dive in.

The Philadelphia 76ers are favored in this game despite their big man being out, with the moneyline currently sitting at a cool -115. This is essentially a toss-up, with the home team being slightly favored - but there are some incredibly convincing numbers on the season to show why we should support the 6ers in this contest. As the home favorite, Philly is 12-5 straight up – that’s a win rate of 70% this season, despite missing their best player a lot of those games. We’ll take that over the smaller sample size, that says that Sacramento is 4-2 straight up on the road as the dog this season. 

Plus, our money handles tool has been flirting with this game all day. We currently, as of writing, have 28% of the total bets placed on the 6ers - the Kings are the heavy public favorite - but have 81% of the money handle currently, giving us a difference of 53%. As well, Sharp AI is feeding into this as well, showing that really, the home team should be favored by two and a half points. We have that wiggle room to work with, plus the trends background. 

As well, Philly just owns this series. They’re 9-1 in their last ten games against the Kings, and both of these teams are literally league average in pretty much everything when it comes to their past ten games. The 76ers play good home defense, and they have the 11th-ranked scoring defense in the league. The Kings have excelled on the road defensively, but could falter here against a hot team bent on assists over their last five games. 

This game looks on paper like it could be a toss-up, and don’t be surprised if late public money hammers either team - but the Money Handles tool, and Sharp AI, shows that there’s a lot of value on the home team to take the win tonight. Go Philly, straight up.

PICK: Philadelphia 76ers ML

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