NBA Bet of the Day | January 11, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 118-70-2, +38.59u
RECAP: Last night we nailed three of our picks, and lost one by a measly four points, as the Clippers let the Raptors back into the game late. We hit on our NBA Bet of the Day though and we are quickly approaching a cool 40 unit profit on our season, which means a lot – considering in the MLB, we made just over 60 units the whole year. Being halfway through the NBA and at 40 feels really, really good. Let’s increase it today.

January 11, 2024

Tonight we have a smaller slate with lots of teams on back to backs, and an uncertainty across the league in who is playing and who isn’t. Our Money Handles tool and line movement is pointing us in the direction of one specific play, and we’re banking on a dog keeping the game close against one of the hottest teams in the league. 

Tonight the Portland Trail Blazers are heading to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. While Portland has historically struggled against the Thunder ATS, we’re seeing some significant money on the money handles and when we look at ATS data. ATS this season, the Blazers are four games under .500 – but when you look at them as a road underdog, we’re seeing the Blazers hit this at a 50% rate, meaning that they are statistically better ATS on the road rather than at home. 

Our Money Handles tool proves this as well, showing significant data to support this play. While 42% of the bets have been placed on the side of the Blazers, the money screams for itself, with a whopping 91% of the money placed on the spread in favor of the Blazers. And, the line movement is supportive here as well, as this game opened with the Blazers hitting at +14 – that number has dropped a point and a half since the line dropped. That is always a good sign when we’re looking at specific bets. 

Finally, this team has struggled on the road to score, but OKC’s defense on a back-to-back might be a little more sketchy than normal. In fact, Portland kills it ATS on back-to-backs – and while they’ve had a day to travel and rest up, OKC on a back-to-back could be daunting. The Thunder are traveling from a grueling game against the Heat (a game that hit in our NBA of the Day), and anytime you play the Heat, you know that your body is going to be exhausted. 

Let’s look for the Blazers to keep this one close-ish, and we only need them to lose by twelve or less. Come on. That’s not too much to ask, right?

PICK: Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

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