NBA Bet of the Day | January 10, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 115-69-2, +36.88u
RECAP: Yesterday was one of the most disappointing losses in recent memory, as our NBA of the Day failed to cash. We were on track for over 260 points in the third quarter, and I thought it was a lock to hit - and then both teams fell apart, with only 37 total points being scored in the final quarter of the game. It was extremely disappointing to wake up to, to be honest -  and it makes me even more motivated to find a winner today.

January 10, 2024

This is definitely a play that I’m not 100% confident in, as we’re seeing a lot of different movement on this play as the day has gone on. But, we’re getting a red-hot team facing off against a team that is rock-solid at home. Yet, when we uncover the details behind this play, there becomes a little more clarity that one team might disappoint tonight, and we should hammer the other side. 

The Miami Heat are hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder in a matchup between two top teams across the NBA. Jimmy Butler and company have been playing well, going 6-4 across their past ten games, while the Thunder have gone 7-3 across their past ten. These two teams are pretty even when it comes to their records home/away, and there’s no real edge when it comes to their records.

But that’s why we look at the money handles tool. The Thunder, at -4.5, have been on the Sharp Report all day, and have started to really make an impact when we talk about the Money Handles tool inside the Sharp App. They own 32% of the betting handle while dominating the money spread, with 73% of the total amount of money on this game on the Thunder. They’ve got a difference of 41%, and that’s good enough for me. 

While the Sharp AI doesn’t necessarily agree here, I don’t mind the model still believing in the Thunder to win. Sharp AI has this game at Thunder -2, but to me, this is close enough to pull the trigger.

Besides, the Heat haven’t been their usual dominant defensive selves at home this season. They rank 21st in points allowed at home, and OKC is a stout 4th in the league when scoring on the road. They’re the best away 3P shooting team in the league, and rebound much better statistically than the Heat. And while OKC’s defense isn’t making a huge name for itself, they actually rank FIRST in opponent FG percentage on the road this season. They’re the 6th best defensive scoring unit on the road, and there are many different avenues that they can take to win this game, even if the Heat try and slow the pace of this one. 

And, I’ve been burying the lead a little bit here - the Heat have yet to win a game ATS when being a home underdog, as they’re 0-3 on the year. Those aren’t significant statistics, but they’re statistics altogether! 

Let’s take the Thunder tonight in what should be a surprisingly OKC-dominated game. Away team by five, and we can cash our freebie.

PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5

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