NBA Bet of the Day | December 31, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 98-64-2, +28.36u
RECAP: We went 1-0 in our NBA plays yesterday, absolutely nailing our sweat-free NBA of the Day on the under in Chicago. We have another big-time money handles play today in a smaller slate, and the games are much earlier than usual, so just be careful when betting on the NBA today!

December 31, 2023

To ring in the new year, we’re going to be looking to hit our 100th bet in the NBA today! Right now though, I have a free bet that has huge money handles perspective, and it’s one of the later games tonight, so you should be able to grab it while it’s still hot, and everyone’s eyes are on the NFL. 

The Phoenix Suns are hosting the Orlando Magic, and once again, we’re facing a young Magic team that has shown it can be bright in spots throughout this NBA season. The Suns are among the most disappointing teams in the league so far this season, but we’re seeing crazy alignment with our strategy, so of course we’re going to roll with it. 

To begin, this line opened at Orlando +5.5, and now at some books we’re seeing Orlando +6, so we have positive line movement in the direction we’d like. Our Sharp App Projections show that this line should finish around Phoenix -7, which also bodes well for us, grabbing -5.5. Finally, we’re seeing the kicker here – only 35% of the betting handles are currently on the Phoenix Suns, which makes sense - they’ve been disappointing, and their record doesn’t even indicate that they should really be favored tonight. But, we’re seeing 74% of the money handles on the Suns, meaning that they’re a huge favorite when it comes to the money. You know what that means, if you’ve been following me: that’s a 39% difference in favor of the Phoenix Suns, and so that’s why we’re going to hammer the -5.5.

Neither of these teams have been convincing, as the Magic stink on the road, and the Suns stink at home. Phoenix is BAD ATS at home, and Orlando has held their own, but trends are bound to break. 

Phoenix’s offense has been really good as of late at home though, shooting nearly 50% from the field on their home court. They also rank 11th in points scored at home, so it’s not for a lack of scoring that they falter at home. 

It’s really their home defense, but they’ve also been one of the most hurt teams in the league; we haven’t been able to see their full potential yet. Now that the team is nearly back from injury, we can confidently look at our money handles and trust them. Let’s take the -5.5, which is below our projection, and hammer it to ring in the new year.

PICK: Phoenix Suns -5.5

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