NBA Bet of the Day | December 29, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 96-63-2, +27.58u
RECAP: And just like that, we give some of it back, going 1-2 in my plays yesterday. We hit our NBA Play of the Day, which seems like it’s been on the biggest run ever, and we lost our two PRO Plays. Denver covered super easily, as we got the line way before Ja went out with an illness. Let’s try and continue the streak today!

December 29, 2023

When matchups are a toss-up, it’s often wise to go with the home team, especially with the lines being so close. They’ll feed off of the home crowd and have the edge in their comfort at home – but what happens when the money handles look a little different?

Tonight, the Orlando Magic are hosting the New York Knicks at home, a place where they’ve been dominant - they’re 11-4 at home this season. They’re hosting the Knicks, who have been average at best on the road - going 9-9 so far on the season. The lines opened up at Orlando -1, and have quickly shifted to the New York Knicks’s side, now placing the line at NYK -1. 

Tonight though, we’re looking at the money handles tool to determine where to bet in this game, and we actually have two pieces of supporting data here. On the spread (NYK -1), we’re seeing 38% of the bets placed there, and a resounding 71% of the money – good for a difference of 33%. On the moneyline, we’re seeing even more convincing data, with 38% of the moneyline bets placed on the Knicks, but 87% of the money on the away team. Despite them being average on the road, they’re leading with a difference percentage of 49% on the moneyline. It’s a line we just have to hammer. 

And both of these teams have been average as of late, both teams going 5-5 ATS over their last ten games. The Knicks are 5-5 straight up as well, while the Magic have hit a rough spot, going 4-6 over their last ten. Orlando’s offense has gone cold over their last five games, ranking 22nd or worse in most offensive categories, meanwhile the Knicks defense has been pretty solid, ranking 9th in FG percentage and 19th in total points allowed. That’s not great, but when you look at the Magic, their offense has run out of magic… they’re 28th in scoring over their last five games, and at home, rank 11th in the league. The Knicks actually improve their scoring on the road, going from the 22nd-ranked overall offense to the 17th-ranked overall road offense. That’s pretty convincing. 

While neither of these teams are going to absolutely light up the scoreboard, I’m looking at a player like Jalen Brunson to lead this team to a victory tonight, being a leading scorer on this weak guard lineup for the Magic. While Banchero is definitely scary, I think that the Knicks defense is there to stop him, and they’ll make someone else try and beat them. Let’s take the experienced Knicks on the moneyline at -112.

PICK: New York Knicks ML (-112)

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