NBA Bet of the Day | December 28, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 95-61-2, +28.68u
RECAP: Yesterday was one of the most wild days of the NBA season for me, as we went 3-1 on the day, but just as easily could have been 1-3. I went to watch a movie with my wife with both the Under and the Cavs dead in the Dallas game, and when the movie was finished, there was one minute left in the game, and both bets were cashing rather easily. Crazy how quickly a bet can turn. We cash our NBA of the Day AGAIN, and we’re super hot right now.

December 28, 2023

I am a huge proponent of taking heavy favorites early, because the line is bound to move in the favorite’s favor throughout the day, barring any significant lineup changes. Tonight we have two of the hottest teams in the league facing off in Denver, as the Grizzlies are 4-0 since Ja Morant has returned, and Denver has won five straight in convincing fashion. Head-to-head over their past ten matchups, the Grizzlies are winning ATS 6-4, but tonight’s game could be different. 

According to the Sharp App Money Handles tool, we’re seeing significant advantages in Denver's way. Denver holds only 39% of the total bets placed ATS, with the line currently at -7.5. But they hold a resounding 91% of the money handle, meaning that we’re seeing some seriously heavy bets on the Nuggets tonight in this game, even though Memphis is rolling. 

That makes for a difference of 52%, among the highest we’ve seen so far in this NBA season. And it’s warranted, as the Nuggets are completely dominant at home, going 12-2 on the season so far. They have the 8th-best home scoring, and the 2nd-best field goal percentage at home this season. Despite Memphis’ dominant defense, we’re still seeing advantages go Denver’s way pretty much in ever statistical category – and the Sharp App agrees with the line, with Sharp AI placing this line at -7. It’s right there. 

Meanwhile, despite Memphis’ push with Morant, they still don’t score the ball nearly as effective as you’d like. Over their last five games, they’re bottom ten in nearly every offensive category - and the Denver defense is top five in nearly every defensive category. 

There’s a lot of hype around Memphis, and the entrance of Ja Morant back onto our TV screens, but if we’re being truthful, this is just too much hype for a team that hasn’t shown they can beat top-tier defenses yet. 

Tonight, Memphis gets the biggest test of them all, playing Denver on the Nuggets’ home court - and I think it could be a rude awakening for one of the hottest teams in the league. Let’s take Denver and the points.

PICK: Denver Nuggets -7.5

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