NBA Bet of the Day | December 27, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 92-60-2, +26.98u
RECAP: Our NBA journey has progressed into another positive day, as we went 2-1-1 on the day yesterday in our four bets. Our Nets play pushed while the under failed to hit, but the two overs in the Oklahoma City and Portland games gave us a positive day of about a unit. It’s been a great run at NBA of the Day, and we already have FOUR PRO plays on tap. Here’s your freebie:

December 27, 2023

The Dallas Mavericks have haunted me all season. Every season, there seems to be that one team that, when you need them to win, they absolutely flounder, and when you need them to lose, they are the best team in the league. Today, we’re going to avoid the sides altogether, and hammer a total in that game. 

We saw some early Mega Sharp money on the total in this game to lower the total from 231 to 230.5 in this game between the Cavaliers and the Mavericks. The line opened at 231.5, and has since dropped a point, and could continue dropping. Donovan Mitchell is questionable in this game, and Luka Doncic may also not play, pending his left quad. Kyrie Irving is already out as well, so this play is banking on one of either Mitchell or Luka to not play, but we’ll have to see.

When we look at the line movement, we’re obviously already seeing positive signs, but our Sharp App Money Handles PRO Tool also has a great handle on this game. As of writing this, we’re seeing 38% of the betting handle on the under, which obviously is not much – meaning that we’re avoiding the public. As well, we’re seeing 68% of the money coming in on the under, which means that there’s potential for Sharp Money, which we can confirm in the Sharp Report. 

I am the under taker typically, and finding good unders is my favorite bet to play in the NBA. While both of these teams excel in the over, the NBA market knows and understands that most teams will end close to .500 at the end of the season when it comes to totals - so regression is bound to hit both of these teams. Over the last five games, the Mavericks are 28th in FG percentage and dead last in free throw percentage. They’ve also lost a lot of their scoring moxie, ranking 17th in the league in their last five games in total scoring. 

The Cavaliers have been a mess for a long time on offense. They shoot the 3-ball well, and have been moving the ball well recently, but if you look at their year-long statistics, they’re a team that leaves a lot to be desired, especially on the road, where they rank 20th in scoring. 

Let’s take the under in this game, as all signs point to a competitive, low-scoring game between teams with plenty of backups in the starting lineups tonight.

PICK: Cleveland/Dallas under 230.5

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