NBA Bet of the Day | December 20, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 80-57-1, +14.79u
RECAP: In the small slate yesterday, we had only one play that resulted in a big-time win, with the Blazers upsetting the Suns, but hitting the under by nearly twenty points. Last night was a WEIRD one in the NBA, as Ja Morant led the Grizzlies to a win, the Blazers won, the Warriors beat the best team in the league, and the Spurs covered. We’ll take our win and move on!

December 20, 2023

In arguably the game of the night, we’re seeing two juggernauts go head-to-head in Philly as the scorching Timberwolves take on the 76ers on their home court, where they have been a dominant 10-4. The Wolves are more mortal than at home, but still VERY good on the road, at a record of 9-4 on the opposing team’s court.

But the sides aren’t what we’re going to be analyzing here; it’s actually the total that I want to take a deep dive into. When this game dropped, we saw the total open up at 225 at all markets. Then, the total zoomed up to 226.5 at most books, and that’s where we’re seeing it currently. And truthfully, there’s no news that came out as to why that total shot up, and continues to rise at some books… there’s got to be money coming in. That’s what we follow - the early money.

If you’re reading this, I’ve told you a couple of things before: favorites are the ones you hit early, and dogs are the ones you bet on later in the day. But with the totals, we’re seeing some movement all day, and so if you see some movement that you believe to be Sharp Money (and even better if you can confirm it on the Sharp Report), then absolutely hammer it. 

But getting into the game, these 6ers can just flat out score, man. They’re fifth in total scoring on their home court at 123 points per game, and while the Wolves have the 5th-best defensive unit on the road, I believe that this game is still going to be extremely close. As well, the Sixers are expected to win, and truthfully, that isn’t going to happen unless this game turns into a high-scoring game on both sides. 

The Wolves are incredibly competent on offense, and shooting 8th in the league in FG percentage 6th in road offensive boards, and are putting up 114 points per game. And while this Philly defense is one that is solid defensively, they haven’t played any teams at home (Chicago/Detroit/Washington) that can shoot the ball effectively, so of course their recent numbers are inflated. 

Let’s take the over in this game between two teams that are going to have to find ways to put the ball in the basket. I think that most in the public see this as a defensive battle, but we’re going to take that line movement and double-down on the over.

PICK: Minnesota/Philadelphia over 226

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