NBA Bet of the Day | December 19, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 79-57-1, +13.88u
RECAP: We went a whopping 1-1 yesterday as the Nets failed to beat the Jazz, but the Timberwolves pulled out a sweaty win against the tough Miami Heat, who look to be back to their final form. I’m still wondering just how dominant the Timberwolves can be, but they’re sure riding high after yesterday’s come-from-behind victory. Let’s dive in today!

December 19, 2023

The Phoenix Suns are heading up north to take on the Blazers of Portland in a matchup that is expected to be lopsided, as seen by the line of -7 in favor of the Suns. While this game might be dominated by one team, there’s no clear indication of the total in this one: but with the Sharp App, we’re seeing a clear direction of where you should be placing your money.

There has been Sharp Money on the Blazers under all day according to the Sharp Report, and the total has dipped from 232 down to 231 recently. According to the Sharp App Money Handles tool, we’re seeing only 31% of the total bets in on the under, while the money handles within the app indicate that there’s over 70% on the under - that means that we’re seeing a percentage of 46% when it comes to those two handles. That’s an absolutely significant difference. 

And truthfully, this comes without saying, but neither of these teams have been exactly humming offensively. Overall, the Trailblazers rank 29th in total scoring, while the Suns rank 14th; yet, the Suns are prolific Overs-machines this season, at 16-10. So why the under? As the away team, they come down to earth on these overs, as they’re 5-6 so far this season when it comes to the overs. That’s a crazy differential as they’re 11-4 on the over at home. When they’re away from home, it’s actually more profitable to bet on the under. 

Guess what? At home, the Blazers are 6-5 when it comes to the UNDER as well, so they’re also not as hot of a scoring team in the total. In their one game so far this season against each other, the under would have hit by a couple of points, and since we’re mid-season, there’s no reason that this line should be at 231. Our Sharp App Projections put this game at 230.

Let’s ride the under in this divisional game between two opponents going in different directions, and hope that the trends stay where they’ve been so far to begin this season; both of these teams struggle to score in their current positions. Let’s keep it that way.

PICK: Phoenix/Portland under 231

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