NBA Bet of the Day | December 18, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 78-56-1, +14.03u
RECAP: We have officially hit our rough patch of the year, as we’ve lost nearly four units over the past few days in the NBA. Last night we didn’t have any NBA plays, but we’re searching for some clarity to try and push past this rut. Just like in the MLB, we’ll go on a huge run soon enough, but right now, it’s tough to stay positive! Let’s get into it.

December 18, 2023

The NBA is the world’s best reality show, because there are a million characters, and they all have off-the-court shenanigans that they’re a part of. Anthony Edwards got into some trouble last night, where some screenshots of a text conversation were leaked… you can go and check it out. But here’s why I think that they win today, despite the controversy. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in Miami tonight for a clash between the best team in the league and one of the grittiest teams in the league. This seems like a square pick, but the line for this game is especially close - currently, the Timberwolves are favorites by -1.5, or about -115 on the moneyline. 

But this Miami Heat team is without big man Bam Adebayo and prolific scorer Tyler Herro, and are coming off of a grueling win against the Chicago Bulls in which Jimmy Butler bailed them out on a last-second winner. The Miami Heat are 7-5 at home this season, and are 3-9 ATS as the home team. 

The Timberwolves win in any which-way they’d like, and it’s evidenced by their big men. Karl Anthony-Towns put up 40 points against the interiorally-challenged Pacers, and the Heat are the same in that they don’t have a major presence down low with Adebayo hurt. Minnesota is 4-4 ATS on the season as an away favorite, but are a dominant 8-4 on the road this season. 

The Wolves do it with their defense, though. They are top-ten in nearly every defensive category on the road, and rank first in rebounding on the road. They’re also only giving up the seventh-least amount of points on the road this season, while the Heat struggle to score at home, ranking 15th in the league. 

We’re going to take Minnesota on the moneyline tonight, as I’m sure this line will continue to creep in their favor all night long. This may seem like a square-ish play, but I think that the power that Minnesota has down low with KAT and Gobert makes for a tough test for Miami. Hammer the Wolves.

PICK: Minnesota Timberwolves ML

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