NBA Bet of the Day | December 14, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 75-49-1, +17.33
RECAP: Woof. We hit an absolute banger in our freebie, with the biggest total in the league yesterday hitting rather easily thanks to Giannis having an absolutely monster game. Other than that though, we hand-picked three other losers, including a loss for our Damian Lillard prop, where he promised kids 30 points, and he only totaled 21. Sad for the kids.

December 14, 2023

Feels like every single play nowadays has to do with the Chicago Bulls, and this time, we’re taking on the Sharps to see if our play will hit. We’ll just have to see. 

The Chicago Bulls are heading to Miami to take on the Heat in this matchup that should be tough, bruising, and is expected to be rather low-scoring with a total hovering around 216 all day. We’ve seen movement on the line all day as well, with the line beginning at Chicago +5.5, and moving all the way to 5.5. Now, it’s around +3.5-4.5 in most books, as we’ve seen a bounceback on the line. 

But Sharp AI isn’t messing around here, with a prediction of Heat -5.5 on this play, even with the current books way lower than that, and I frankly don’t blame them; the Heat are really solid at home, and the Chicago Bulls are among the worst teams in the league on the road. When the Bulls are road underdogs, they’re a whopping 3-6 ATS, and is hitting at a 66% rate for the season. Miami as home favorites aren’t much better though, at a 3-5 record. Rock meets a hard place. 

Plus, these offenses aren’t exactly the best either. We’re seeing a bottom-three shooting team on the road facing a bottom-of-the-league shooting percentage allowed. But, the Heat are a top-five rebounding team at home, and they have the best three-point percentage in the league at home. They’re especially potent at scoring the ball in the second and third quarter at home, with a top-ten scoring team during those quarters. The Bulls have essentially shown no sort of defensive threat on the road this season, allowing the 20th-most points per game in the league on the road. 

Finally, in their last matchup the Heat absolutely killed the Bulls by 18 points. I’m not saying that the same thing is going to occur, but the money talks; we’re seeing only 26% of the total bets on the Heat -3.5, and over 61% of the money. That’s a major difference of 35%, and one that we’ll gladly reach out on, despite the Sharp Money on the other side. 

Let’s take the Heat, because I simply can’t trust the Chicago Bulls on the road. This could be another nail in the Bulls’ coffin.

PICK: Miami Heat -3.5

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