NBA Bet of the Day | December 13, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 74-46-1, +19.42
RECAP: Yesterday was a day that we hit on a push in the Bulls game. I know that they should have absolutely pummeled the Nuggets without Jokic (on a soft foul, btw) - but they’re the Bulls, and they’re full of disappointment. We missed on two player props while we hit a plus-money prop in Kevin Huerter. Let’s get it today in this HUGE slate.

December 13, 2023

We are going to have a historic night tonight in Milwaukee as the Pacers come to town to take on the Bucks. The total in this game is set at 258.5, one of the highest totals of the year – and let’s dive into which way we could be looking at in this game. 

The Bucks have been machines when it comes to the over, hitting at 15-8 over their first 23 games. The Pacers have been the best offense in the league at scoring as well, hitting on the Over in 17 out of their first 21 games this season. That’s absolutely nuts. 

Plus, the Bucks are absolutely obliterating teams at home, scoring at a scorching pace of 123 points per game at home - nearly ten points above league average. And the Indiana Pacers’ defense? They’re allowing over 231 points per game on the road, by far the highest mark in the league on the road. That means that a potent offense is going to meet a porous away defense, meaning that lots of points could be scored on the side of the home team. As a home favorite, the over is 8-4 this season in their games. 

But the fun really comes when we consider Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers’ offense. The Pacers shoot better on the road than at home, and the Bucks are allowing the most field goals attempted at home in the entire league. That’s crazy. The Pacers also score 128 points per game away from home, while the Bucks allow just under 120. This is going to be extremely high-scoring. The most important stat? The Over has never lost when Indiana is an away underdog. Never this season. That’s absolutely nuts. 

The Money Handles find us healthy, too – while there was early Sharp money on the under, it didn’t move the line much, and was crossed off of the list. This historic over has 43% of all of the total bets, but over 73% of the total money. That could be sharp, but really, I think it’s more of the public wanting this over. 

And screw it, I do too. Let’s hammer this league-high over in a game between teams that have played each other often already this season. We need almost 260 points scored? Screw it, let’s do it.

PICK: Indiana/Milwaukee over 258.5

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