NBA Bet of the Day | 9-3 Run | December 12, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 73-44, +20.41
RECAP: We have officially crossed the twenty-unit season-long threshold thanks to big wins over the weekend, and yesterday we went 1-1 on our NBA plays to finish just about even. Over the last seven days alone we’re up over six units and on a 9-3 run in the NBA on straight picks & props. Smaller slate today, but a slate that’s already showing a ton of value.

December 12, 2023

Once again, betting on or against your favorite team can definitely be a struggle, and one that we don’t really take well around here. Today, the Chicago Bulls host the Denver Nuggets in a matchup that has a spread of +8 currently, but checks absolutely all of my boxes. 

Chicago has been historically very bad ATS this season, but are pretty well-positioned as the home team, going 6-6-1 ATS when playing on their home court. And they’ve been really solid as a home underdog, going 3-1-1 ATS this season when not favored but on home court. Our Sharp App tools really love this game, so let’s dive into it. 

The line shot up to +8 from its opening at +7, and now at most books, you’re seeing it at +7.5 after money evened this game out. We’re seeing only 32% of the bets on this game on Chicago, even as the home team - but, we’re seeing 72% of all money placed on this game on Chicago’s spread. 

To make things even better, Sharp AI has this game at more of a 4.5-point game, and not all the way at +7.5 or +8. 

When we have all of those things - and we have line movement back in our direction - that’s an auto-pick for me. The trifecta lives on! 

But when we actually look at the data in this game, the Bulls have been one of the best teams in the league over the past week and a half. They’re 5-0 ATS over their last five games, and have beaten good teams like New Orleans and Milwaukee, despite losing in overtime last night to a healthy Milwaukee team. The Bulls have been much better without Zach Lavine, and it’s much on the shoulders of Demar Derozen and Coby White to carry this team. These two will have their hands full, and Jokic will eat inside, but our AI predictor believes that the Bulls will keep this game closer than most think. 

Meanwhile, Denver is 1-4 over their last five, including a barn-burning win over the Hawks last night. The Bulls mostly play everyone on a back-to-back, but the Nuggets are more likely to sit players, if they feel the need to. 

We could see this line stay right here, or we could see it go in either direction. I can’t really tell which way – but all I know is that the money is on our side, and we’ll take that 100% of the time. Roll Bulls.

PICK: Chicago Bulls +8

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