Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | October 30, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 12-9, +2.40u
RECAP: We hit on two props yesterday, including both of them being pretty close to even money, so we ended up pretty much even. Our NBA of the Day got slammed though, as the over wasn’t even close to being hit. Getting back to my ways, now - we’re taking picks that are simple and solid, not trying to do anything too fancy. Not being too public, but staying in between the lines.

October 30, 2023

PICK: Indiana Pacers -3
Wasn’t it cool when Zach Lavine scored a ton of points and the Bulls still got demolished? Yeah, that pretty much will sum up the Bulls season, as I think this squad looks very different by the end of the season. 

The Pacers and the Bulls are two teams trending in opposite directions. The Pacers have a clear trajectory towards a championship run over the next few years, while the Bulls struggle to have any identity on a night-to-night basis. The Pacers are my top play of the day today, especially at home, to win by three or more. While our Sharp App AI projects this game to be closer than this final score of three-or-more, we’re taking into account a gassed Bulls team that has significant money against them.

And while I hate joining the public on any bet, there’s grounds here to push hard for the Pacers. The only presence stopping Tyrese Haliburton and company is Alex Caruso, because the Bulls inside defense is as porous as they come. In fact, most books lean over on most of the important Pacers players tonight in points - Myles Turner is projected at -114 on his over as he should dominate. Haliburton is expected to score about 20. And Mathurin should score over 15 pretty easily against Zach Lavine and Demar Derozan. 

One of the best parts of the Sharp App is where you can look and compare all of these lines together on Props, which helps when looking for expected value. Zach Lavine rarely replicates his fantastic performances, and that’s depicted in his Consensus points scored on our app - he’s projected to go under the 26.5 that his line is sitting at. 

Plus, to put it plainly, the Bulls are 0-3 against the spread so far this season. They’re an up-and-down team who tried to have an up this weekend, and failed; they’re due for another down. They’re last in FG% to begin the season, also last in FG% allowed so far. Yikes. 

Let’s ride with the Pacers, who should be able to push it at home against this flailing Bulls team. Take the points, too.

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