Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | October 29, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 10-7, +2.40u
RECAP: We went even last night on straight-up NBA picks, with Memphis’ comeback coming up a little short, and the Pelicans taking care of business against the sleepy New York Knicks on a back-to-back. One of these days, we’re going to have a monster day like we did day one, and it’ll be glorious!

October 29, 2023

PICK: Golden State/Houston o224.5
This bet seems too good to be true, which is why I’m hesitant to take it; however, there might be 240 points scored in this game, especially at the rate that these two teams like to get out on the break. When we have two transition teams playing each other, look for numbers in the 220’s to capitalize on these totals. 

Our Sharp App AI loves this game, too - there’s expected to be over 226 points scored, according to the Sharp App Projections. And while the Warriors are favored by anywhere from 4-6 at most books, that line seems closer than one might think: this makes for a great chance for the over, because of how competitive this game might be. Two historically high-scoring teams in a close game might mean we’re looking at a 125-125 game.

And these past two seasons have attested to that. Last season, Houston finished right around even when it came to O/U, and Golden State was one of the highest O/U teams in the league. Today, Sharp Money agrees with us, at the total of 224 getting hammered by sharps as of this afternoon. 

Something that scares me is that there’s a ton of public money on this play as well, but that’s okay – the numbers support us, here. Golden State had the second-most overs in the league last season as the away team, and went 15-7-1 as the away favorite in overs last season. We’re going to look for Golden State to carry us today. 

But there’s also something to be said about the Houston offense. These teams explode in the third quarter, both of them: these two teams have combined for third quarter overs in so many of their previous games over their past two seasons. Neither of these teams can rebound effectively, and that will make for lots of second-chance opportunities throughout this game, leading to more points. 

This game will be run-and-gun the entire way, and I’m looking for them to go over fairly easily. Let’s hope for no defense.

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