Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | October 28, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 9-6, +2.43u
RECAP: A big night last night as we went 2-0 on straight up picks in the NBA. The Nuggets and Memphis went under easily while the Spurs and Rockets played a super tight, competitive game… all the way into overtime, where the over cashed easily. Sometimes, we have to get a little lucky on these! And oh my lord… Victor Wembanyama is real, and he’s going to be good for a long time.

October 28, 2023

PICK: Memphis ML
This play comes directly from our Sharp App Money Handles tool, which determines where the money is coming from, and where the most money in all of the NBA is coming in on. When we look at the moneyline for this game between Washington and Memphis, we’re seeing a huge discrepancy between bet percentage and the money involved. 

As of 4:15 ET, there is only 38% of the total bets placed on Memphis – this means that, technically, the Wizards are the favorite from the public side. I love to fade the public – it’s my favorite thing to do when placing bets – so, we take a look at the money. Nearly 81% of the money on the moneyline for this game is on Memphis, meaning that there are some huge bets on Memphis. THESE are the bets to trust, ones that are low on bet percentage, but high in money percentage. There is currently a difference of over forty percent on Memphis right now, which is exactly the reason we’re taking this. 

Sharp App AI also loves Memphis tonight, despite the back-to-back from last night. Memphis exerted a ton of energy yesterday, but our AI has them at 54% to win, and that they should be 1.5-point favorites. 

As well, narratively, we’re seeing a lot of value in Memphis, who is yet to win a game this season. The Wizards are turnover-prone and young, led by the free-shooter Jordan Poole. The Memphis Grizzlies have dominated this matchup throughout recent history, going 6-4 against the spread and 7-3 straight up. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the league, and are going to be all season-long, and that means that Memphis’ defense will have to stand up well. Good thing, because they allow one of the lowest field-goal percentages in the league.

Last season, Memphis was 16-11 as an away favorite, and that’s what they’ll end up being tonight. They win games that they should win, and let’s trust Memphis to get their first win of the season tonight.

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