Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | October 27, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 6-4, +1.79u
RECAP: After hitting a 4-0 start, we’re 1-1 in straight up picks, and 1-3 in props throughout the past two days. I gave you a few NBA picks yesterday in my video, but today is for the article… and we have an absolutely loaded slate today. Be cautious, as tonight is the first game of a back-to-back for some teams, and they’ll be more apt to sit players.

October 27, 2023

PICK: Houston/San Antonio o227.5
The Victor Wembanyama show is here, and while he didn’t have an absolutely dominant game, he played well, specifically on the perimeter, in their last one. Nearly all of his points came from 3-point land, and he rarely missed; but he was also extremely selective in his shot-creation. His defensive presence, though, is everything that you could ask for and more - he’s as advertised on that end of the court. But his defense isn’t why we’re taking the over, tonight. 

Matchups between these teams are almost always shootouts, and that’s to be expected again tonight. Out of their last five games against each other since March of last year, four have cleared this number, and sometimes, this number has gotten cleared by more than 25 points. 

And tonight has every indication that there will be points. Houston struggled mightily in their first game shooting the ball, and so regression to the mean is going to hit at some point, and it might be tonight - besides the very tall man, the Spurs don’t play a ton of defense well. In fact, they just gave up 127 to the Dallas Mavericks, an offense that has historically been inept at times over the past few seasons. I expect Houston to be able to bounce back, and for players like Jalen Green to get open, and Fred VanVleet to open up this offense.

But, surprisingly, this Spurs offense was really efficient in their last game, and that might be their calling card this season. Using Sharp App AI, we’re expecting this to be a close game, as our AI predicts that the home team should only be favored by .5 – but the O/U to be closer to 230. Wembanyama’s lines at all of the sportsbooks, which you can compare directly on the Sharp App, are around 17.5. That’s an increase from last game, as the books are expecting him to gain some confidence on the offensive end.

Overall, let’s take the over on a historically-high-scoring matchup, and the fact that these two offenses really should be humming to begin the season.

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