Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | November 9, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 30-20, +8.28u
RECAP: We have officially hit thirty bets won in this early NBA season, and we’re also on a four-article-win-streak. The Wizards absolutely dominated the lowly Hornets, and they won outright - truthfully, I was scared to pick them straight up, but we’ll take the -110 winner. We also missed on the Clippers, who just ran cardio in the second half, and we hit on a parlay in the Timberwolves game for a 2-1 day.

November 9, 2023

PICK: Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers u242
This is a game that definitely scares me a little bit, but screw it; to make it five straight NBA’s of the Day, we’ve got to go big, and I love this under. 

When we look at our Sharp App tools, only 31% of the bets are on this play, and we love to fade the public. Pair that with 41% of the money handle being on this side, and we’re cooking with gas now! I know that both of these teams are overs machines - the Bucks are 5-2 and the Pacers are 7-1 - but this is a game where Giannis can take over on the defensive side of the ball, and the Bucks need to win this game. It’s important for both of these teams to perform, which means concentration, which means defense. 

I know that’s flawed thinking, so let’s look into the history of this matchup. The over has hit in five straight matchups between these two teams, but those trends have to end at some point - the books are smart, and they know what they’re doing. Plus, this line went up and up, and then came back down as more and more money came in on the under. 

At some point, this Milwaukee defense has to figure it out - and this Pacers team has prolific scorers, but this could be a one-sided affair with Giannis being fired up from yesterday’s weak ejection. I think that he clamps tonight, and the wings on Milwaukee have a chance to really make a statement by saying that they belong in this starting lineup. 

As well, these offensive numbers on the side of Indiana cannot keep going. There’s no way - these numbers aren’t sustainable, especially when we see that they’re the second-ranked offense in the entire league. They’ve played a fairly weak schedule to this point, and Myles Turner may be able to turn it on defensively and actually be an inside presence. 

Let’s take the under in a HUGE number, because these defenses, in a divisional game, should be able to show up. Let’s hammer the under, and follow the money.

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