Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | November 5, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 23-19, +2.99u
RECAP: Friday was one of those days where the things that aren’t supposed to happen happened, and then the things that were supposed to happen, didn’t. I missed on both Cavs plays (the spread and the under), but then PRO Subscribers hit on two plus-money parlays, one with moneylines and one with props. So, even though we went 2-2 on the day, we made some cash.

November 5, 2023

PICK: Toronto/San Antonio o220.5
This is a line that I love because of the implications of last season, as these two teams are similar beasts to last year. When these two teams matched up, it meant points last season, as the Spurs were #1 in the league in overs, and Toronto was #5 in the league in overs. This season, the Spurs are 4-1 on the over, while Toronto is 2-4 on the over - which means that we have to look at the previous implications to find the total here. 

Sharp money handles are the tool to look at here, as the money is speaking volumes, and moving the line as we speak. Only 36% of bettors have placed their wagers on the over, yet, there’s nearly 80% of the money handle on this play. The San Antonio under has been hit hard at 223, and now there’s significant pushback as the line overcorrected too far. 

And when we look at these two defenses, we can see that there’s implications for the over as well. Our Sharp AI predicts this total at 224, and the Spurs have a potent offense paired with a defense that can’t really stop anything. 

Plus, the Spurs are HOT, coming off of two raucous victories over the Phoenix Suns in their last two games. In close games, they’re 4-0 on the over, and the oddsmakers are expecting this one to be close. Keldon Johnson and the obvious emergence of Victor Wembanyama has been carrying the Spurs through this stretch, as they’ve both scored well to begin the season. 

And the Raptors may be struggling, but there’s a reason they’re favored in this game. Scottie Barnes has scored at least twenty points in five straight games, Pascal Siakam will be gearing to bounce back from his mere 10-point performance in the previous game. He will have a hard time inside with Victor Wembanyama down low, but this is a team that can score from the wings, and even attempt to lure the seven-footer out of the paint as well. 

Let’s ride the over because the trends scream it, and these two teams might come out firing as they’re both trying to ride a high, and get back to a high. This would be a huge win for both teams, and I think that there’s a great chance at the over today.

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