Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | November 15, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 39-29, +7.35u
RECAP: We once again hit on Atlanta in the clutch, and it brought our record to ten games above .500 on picks for the year. We’re up nearly seven and a half units, and that’s boosted by a plus-money PRO play yesterday in the Timberwolves ML, who barely squeaked past the depleted Warriors. That Dubs game was absolutely nuts, too. We gained just over a unit yesterday, let’s continue that climb!

November 15, 2023

PICK: Milwaukee/Toronto o226
Smell that? That’s the smell of a loaded slate a day after a loaded slate. Sometimes, we get so spoiled in the NBA, that it’s jarring when there are only a couple of games on the schedule. Most teams are playing on a back-to-back tonight, which can mean plenty of injury news and players being held out… not here (hopefully), as Dame was back on Monday. Neither of these teams played yesterday, so rest shouldn’t be an issue. 

Taking an over in a Toronto Raptors game feels like a crime, but if you look at their numbers so far this season, this isn’t the same Toronto team we’ve seen in the past. They aren’t defensive powerhouses, and they actually have scorers - Scottie Barnes has emerged as one of the most well-rounded players in the NBA, from rebounding to scoring to playing defense on the wing. Over the six games he’s played this season, he’s averaging just under 20 points per game, while adding in ten rebounds and six assists. That dude’s coming into his own for sure. 

And then you have the usual suspects. Damian Lillard has had his ups and downs so far this season, but we can chalk most of that up to injury; and Giannis, in his last seven games, is averaging 30/9/4. The Bucks haven’t been defensive monsters either, going 6-4 in Overs so far this season. 

But what we’re really looking at here is the line movement and the money handles. Sharp AI has this game as a projected line of O/U228, and it’ll probably get there by game time. We’re seeing considerable money on the over as well; while 75% of bets placed are on the under in this game, the over has 56% of the money placed. That’s a difference (on the over) of over 30%, making this game one of the top plays of the morning updates as far as money is concerned. And the line opened at 225.5, and is expected to continue to creep up. 

And these teams should be able to score. The Bucks are giving up 118 points per game to opposing offenses, good enough for a measly 24th in the league. The Raptors are great defensively, ranking ninth in the league in total scoring, but man… the Bucks can score in bunches, and are averaging 115 points per game. 

Sharp AI has this game as a two-point cushion, and I think the line will move. We’ve got some wiggle room. Take the over, and let’s see some scoring in Toronto tonight.

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