Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | November 12, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 35-24, +8.63u
RECAP: And we finally broke through again, thanks to a last-second make in the Miami and Atlanta game. It was lucky, but we’ll take the lucky ones! We also hit on two player props - Giannis under rebounds, and Jaylen Brown over points at 21.5. Combined we hit over 2.5 units yesterday, and we’ve got another nice-looking slate today. Let’s dive in!

November 12, 2023

PICK: Phoenix Suns -2.5
I love the Oklahoma City Thunder just as much as the next guy - they’re spunky, they have poise, and they can absolutely rock the rim. They play at an incredibly quick pace, and are a ton of fun to watch – but this is an experienced, high-quality team in Phoenix at home. 

Obviously, it depends on who exactly plays in this game - but our Sharp App AI has this game projected at -4, and there’s significant money handle changes when it comes to this spread. 

It’s going to be a must-watch game in the NBA, and already has quite a bit of money on it. Our Sharp App Money Handles tool shows that over 61% of all bets are on the road team, while only 39% are on the Suns - but 60% of the money is on the Suns, who have Kevin Durant to throw at this OKC defense. 

The Suns have had significant ups and downs to begin the season, with plenty of injuries, specifically to Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. A win today would bring them back up to .500, and would place themselves within the early-season playoff race. Plus, the Suns won this game 3 out of 4 times last season. 

This OKC defense isn’t anything special, either; they currently rank in the bottom half of the league when it comes to most of the specific defensive categories. This Phoenix offense should be able to dominate, especially with Bradley Beal coming back to the lineup. He offers such a dynamic presence in this offense, and acts as a second option to KD, and will alleviate some of the pressure off of Jusef Nurkic, too. 

While SGA and company are also electric on offense, they truly matchup poorly against this defensive unit - Phoenix has the length on defense to cover inside, but then also have wings that act as a great defensive presence. They rank in the top-half of the league in defense on 3-pointers, and should be able to shut down the high-percentage shooters on the Oklahoma City side. 

This game is expected to be close, but with Beal back, I think that the Suns make a statement. Suns by at least three.

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