Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | November 11, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 32-24, +6.10u
RECAP: Yesterday we took a step back in the world of the NBA, and it was because two second quarters really did us in. In the Clippers game, the Clips gave up in the second quarter, and in our NBA of the Day, the Jazz and Grizzlies combined for nearly 80 points. It was an insane quarter, and it did us in. We move on to today’s four-game slate!

November 11, 2023

PICK: Miami/Atlanta o225.5
With news that Jimmy Butler isn’t playing, this raises the value on the over a tremendous amount, especially at the 225 number. This Atlanta offense is for real, and without Jimmy’s defensive presence, it will be easier to score than ever on this Heat defense. Let’s break it down using the Sharp App tools! 

Once this news broke, we saw a ton of money come in on the over at 225. There are only 41% of all total bets on the over at this number, which is less than half; that means we’re avoiding a public play. But, 91% of the money is on the over in this case, meaning that a majority of the money is placed on a bet that has less than 50% of plays - and that, my friends, is the sweet spot. We’re hitting this play at a 56% difference according to the Sharp App Money Handles tool. 

And it also comes with narrative backing as well, as this Atlanta team is one of the hottest offenses on the planet. They’ve hit the over in five out of their first 8 games and have scored over 110 points in every single game so far this season. 

The Heat offense may be the problem, as they rank in the bottom-ten teams in total offense and scoring. They are the 27th-ranked scoring offense in the league… but have no fear, because Atlanta doesn’t play defense. They’re ranked in 24th in the league in total scoring on defense, meaning that they’re porous when it comes to stopping the ball from going into the basket. 

This Atlanta offense is third in the league in scoring and it’s on the back of Trae Young, who over his last 15 days is averaging over 25 points per game. He’s also distributing the ball, averaging a double-double with assists over that stretch. After a really tough start to the season, the Hawks look like they’re really putting it together to go on a run. 

Right behind him is co-star Dejounte Murray, who is averaging 24 points per game. Between the two of them, and the lack of guard play for the Heat, we’re looking at a whole lot of points coming from the Atlanta side tonight, especially at home. 

Atlanta is 3-0 to begin the season on overs at home, and I expect that to continue today. Let’s ride the Hawks’ hot start and pray for some points.

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