Mitch's NBA Bet of the Day | November 10, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 31-21, +8.19u
RECAP: We went 1-1 yesterday with our NBA of the Day streak coming to an end at four, which is totally fine. We broke even essentially on a Franz Wagner rebounds prop that I loved early in the morning, and because of the limited slate, didn’t do much else. Let’s hit the ground running today!

November 10, 2023

PICK: Utah Jazz /Memphis Grizzlies u230.5
This bet definitely isn’t sexy, and definitely isn’t the primetime game that everyone is going to be watching today; but there is significant value on the under because of the line movement we’ve already seen.

As soon as this line was posted at 229.5, there was a significant spike in the point total up to 231 almost immediately. Now that it’s buoyed down a point because of public bets, we can now safely grab this under once again at a line that is similar to where the game opened. 

And truthfully, this might be a game that the Jazz win. They have a decent offense, and the Grizzlies are among the worst in the league on the offensive side of the ball. But we’re talking defense, here - and to me, the Grizzlies run the tide on this game. 

They are a stout defensive unit for sure - they’ve hit two straight unders and are holding opponents to field goal percentages below league-average - and it’s because of the additions they made in the offseason. Marcus Smart has really emerged as a leader of this young team, and players like Desmond Bane are trying to also set the tone defensively. As well, they’re playing a Jazz team tonight that ranks 24th in FG% but can get hot from deep in a pinch. 

The Grizzlies on the other side of the ball, though, are abysmal. They’re 28th in FG% and they are getting stumped from behind the arc. While Lauri Markennen and Walker Kessler aren’t exactly defensive masterminds down there, the Grizzlies will likely struggle down low today because of the presence of these two tall beasts. Plus, the Jazz are the fourth-best rebounding team in the league on defense, so there are very few shots at extra-chance points in this game. 

As well, this Grizzlies defense forces turnovers at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Points off of turnovers is another story though, and that’s another part of the reason why the under is imminent here. 

Let’s take the Under in Memphis, as the Grizzlies have hit two straight unders, and Utah needs their defense to step up today. This game is going to be close, so get that line as high as you can.

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