Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (1/31/23)

Hey y’all, I’m Mitch! I’m from Chicago, so I’m a homer for all things Chi-Town: Cubs, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears, and love college hoops around the area. Let’s dive in! 

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 1/28/23 RECAP: The LA Clippers went 1-1 this past week (and their loss was because of Load Management… ugh) and Lillard kept scoring, but stopped dishing. Killian Hayes’ points went Under (as expected) and Memphis went 1-1 this past week. Finally, Cleveland Unders went 1-1 (their numbers are LOW. The total for tonight? Hovering around 211 – that’s unheard of in today’s NBA) and Zach Lavine went 1-1 on rebounding overs. Let’s see what we’ve got cooking this week…

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:  I saw something on Twitter that said that kids these days associate PG LaMelo Ball more with “Melo” than Carmelo Anthony. Oh my. Anyways, Ball has averaged NINE REBOUNDS PER GAME this past week, and he’s gotten over 5 REB four out of his past five. The kid is back from injury and taking over Hornets games, as they just beat the Heat this past weekend. I’m going to HAMMER the Over on his rebounds this week, as he’s got the Bucks, Bulls, and Pistons on their week-long road trip.

Other Trends:

1. The Indiana Pacers are an anomaly this year, outperforming expectations and being propelled by young stars - I’m really hoping they sneak in the playoffs to see what noise they can make. One of those young leaders is rookie SG Bennedict Mathurin, who is averaging 18/4/1.5 this year - and on a HOT streak as of late. In his last four games, he’s averaging 25/6.5/2, and has been really using his minutes on the court to take effective shots. He’s seeing more minutes than ever this season, and I expect his scoring to continue to rise - his Consensus Points Prop is around 19.5, so I would expect he continues to score, even if the Pacers flop in the W/L column. 

2. The hottest team in the league are the Washington Wizards. Why are the Wizards winning? Why are the Wizards COVERING? They’ve covered each of their past six games (including last night against the Spurs) and they’ve won six in a row. I don’t know. The trends say to tail the Wizards ATS, as they’ve got the Pistons and Blazers this week - winnable games, for sure - and so maybe let’s do that. I don’t trust them, but the trends say to follow the Wizards ATS. 

3. I’ve ridden on this trend before, but the Philly 76er’s Overs are back. The Over is 30-19 on the year, and that’s bigger than a trend - that’s just a fact. They score. With Harden and Embiid finally on the same page (including a WIN-OF-THE-YEAR against Denver at home this past weekend), they’re 7-1 in their last 8, scoring a TON of points recently. I don’t care how high the number is - I’ve been riding the Over in Philly all year, and there’s clear evidence to continue so. 

4. The New York Knicks are a tough team to judge, and they’re in a position where they’re over .500, but I’m not sure that anyone would really take them seriously in the postseason. SG Quentin Grimes has been averaging 10 PPG, and his Consensus Points Prop is around 10.5 PPG. Recently he’s been averaging only around 8 PPG, and he’s got the Heat and Clippers coming up (two of the best defensive teams in the league), so let’s take the UNDER on his points this week.

5. New Orleans is a team that was riding high on Overs, as the books kept putting their total number as higher and higher, because they were scoring in huge numbers. Their overall scoring is down recently and they’ve hit the Under in four out of their last five games. They’ve also lost… uh… 8 straight, and 11 out of their last 13. They’re not scoring and their offense is sputtering, and I don’t see them breaking their streak against ANY team this week. Let’s bet on the Unders (and for them to keep losing, if you’re feeling spicy). 

RECAP:
TOTD: Ball REB OVER
Mathurin Points OVER
Washington ATS
Philadelphia Total Points OVER
Grimes Points UNDER
Pelicans Total Points UNDER

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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