Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (1/24/23)

Hey y’all, I’m Mitch! I’m from Chicago, so I’m a homer for all things Chi-Town: Cubs, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears, and love college hoops around the area. Let’s dive in! 

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 1/21/23 RECAP: My TOTD was a good one this past week, with D. Murray continuing to score throughout this week - something I think I’ll continue to encourage to bet the Over on. Kyle Anderson continued to rebound and Toronto Overs and Utah ATS went 1-1. The jury’s still out on Buddy Hield (need a bigger sample size), but the Hawks… they came back down to earth, going 0-2 this week. Let’s get into it. 

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:The Washington Wizards are on a pretty great streak this week, beating two flailing teams in the Knicks and Magic. But, they just traded away one of their best players (Hachimura, who put up 30 against the Magic), and Porzingis is going to be sidelined with a left ankle sprain. They’re 8-16 on the road, and they’re beginning a huge road trip. They’ve got some mid-level teams in the Mavericks, Rockets, and Pelicans this week. I’d fade them all week, as it can be really difficult to mesh as a team without cornerstones, and when you’re not playing at home. 

Other Trends:

1. There are currently six players averaging over 2.5 steals/game over the past seven days - and the only one who has done it over their last four is Denver Guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s actually been a really surprising defensive addition to this Nuggets squad, and he’s getting a lot of minutes lately. He’s continuing to be undervalued in sportsbooks – the Consensus Steals line is .5, and that’s hit in every game this calendar year except for two games.Let’s ride the OVER in KCP’s steals while it’s still under the radar.

2. So, the Los Angeles Lakers are doing pretty well recently. I love thinking “THIS is the win that turns around the Lakers season” – Laker fans are so fun. The fact of the matter is that they’re 3-1 in their last four, and the totals are still hitting under, under, under. They win, but they’re sloppy and can’t score the ball. The under is 6-1 in their last seven, and they’re playing in a back-to-back and then in Boston this week - so, the sloppiness will continue. The safe bet is the Lakers Under, because it’s the only thing that’s consistent in life for Laker fans. 

3. I have a confession - I think I love the Philadelphia 76ers. It’s a really, really dangerous curse that I know will let me down once the playoffs come around, but right now, one of my favorite players to watch is Guard Tyrese Maxey. This team is different with him back in the lineup; and with James Harden taking most of the assist duties with the starters, Maxey can just score, score, score. He’s putting up 23/2/3 in the past three games - great numbers - but he’s not passing the ball. The Consensus Assists line is about 6.5, and he’s only hitting 3.3 AST/game. Look for him to score, but his assist numbers stay down while Harden is dishing. 

4. Los Angeles Clippers PG Reggie Jackson was always a player I thought was going to be a lot better than he actually turned out to be. His current Consensus Points Prop has hovered around 7.5, but in the past four games, he’s averaging 10.3 PPG. He’s begun to develop a more expanded role with the Clippers, and he’s about to play the Lakers, Spurs, and Hawks - let’s ride his “hot streak” and make some money. 

5. We’re used to the Oklahoma City Thunder for being Overs machines, beginning the year 27-16 on the over. Don’t look now, but the Under has hit in four straight games for OKC – even against high-scoring teams. Because of their overall O/U record, squares will continue to hammer the Over – but the reality is that this trend has to slowly come back to .500. The Under is bound to continue to hit, as I’m a huge fan of regression to the mean. 

RECAP:
TOTD: Fade Washington ML/ATS
Caldwell-Pope Steals OVER
LAL Total UNDER
Maxey Assists UNDER
R. Jackson Points OVER
OKC Total UNDER

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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