Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (1/21/23)

Hey y’all, I’m Mitch! I’m from Chicago, so I’m a homer for all things Chi-Town: Cubs, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears, and love college hoops around the area. Let’s dive in! 

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 1/17/23 RECAP: I TOLD Y’ALL about Sengun – he’s been so good for the Rockets recently. Lillard went 1-1 on his points totals. The Bulls played well in Paris, but Brogdon, my TOTD, only played once and he put up 14. I’m going to continue to track that one. The Mavs learned how to score, and the Philly Overs went even on the week. We’ll take a decent week, and I’ll remind you to always look at matchups and what looks good for players in the coming days, and of course, follow my picks (and others) in the Sharp App Discord Channel.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: Atlanta has caught fire here in the cold month of January, winning five straight and are currently occupying the eighth seed in the East. A huge part of this surge has been the play of Guard Dejounte Murray, who has eased into his role for the Hawks; this year, he’s hovered around 20 PPG so far this season. Yet, over the past week, Murray averaged 28.3 PPG, and the sportsbooks have yet to catch up, with his Consensus Points Prop staying around 19.5. He’s got the Hornets, Bulls, and Thunder this week, so that surge in scoring will look to continue. 

Other Trends:

1. A lot of teams have played really well this week, but the most surprising to me has been the Atlanta Hawks (you know, the team I just talked about above. This is a Hawks column now). They’re the best shooting team over the past seven days, and they’re 4-0 ATS this past week - that’s a really, really great week, especially when you’re winning. I’m looking ahead at their next three games (mentioned above), and I think that all three of those lines are going to be close – I’m going to ride with the hottest team in the league, even though they haven’t been great against the spread this year (and who knows, might even be some nice MLs to play here, too). 

2. The Indiana Pacers are in a weird place so far this season, as they’ve been one of the most exciting teams, but are currently on a dramatic six-game losing streak. They’re a well-balanced team, led by the likes of both seasoned vets and young, developing stars. But something’s wrong with SG Buddy Hield - after having a really great season up to this point and averaging nearly 19 PPG. This week, against the Thunder, Bucks, and Grizzlies, he’s had a cold streak, only adding 8 PPG to the scoresheet. Despite his regression, his Consensus Points Prop has stayed around 17.5 - a significant drop. I’m not sure if Hield will regain his form this week, so I would altogether stay away from him,but the trends say Under, Under, Under. 

3. Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kyle Anderson has had a really great stretch this week, in four games averaging 12.5/9.3/7.0. For comparison, his Consensus lines have been 9.5/5.5/4.5 – he’s been playing extremely consistently across the board. While I don’t see him being a double-double machine for too much longer, I do see him maintaining his ability to get boards. Look for his rebounding numbers to stay up, even if the rest of his stats regress to the mean. 

4. The Toronto Raptors have undoubtedly had a disappointing season, with a couple of heartbreaking games against the Bucks and Timberwolves this past week. Nevertheless, Sharp Money seems to always back them in one way or another – and those who have followed the Toronto Overs train this week have been feasting. The Over is 5-1 in their last six, and the lines are still all over the place; the books are struggling to cap this team. They’ve got the Celtics, Knicks, and Kings this week (all teams who have hovered around .500 on O/U this year), so these Overs will continue, especially with Toronto avg. more PPG than they have all season. 

5. Let’s give the Utah Jazz some love – they trade away their star, and after preparing for a TANK season, they’re one game under .500. They get a couple days off here, after a tough loss to the Nets last night – plenty of time to prepare for the week ahead, where they have three winnable games: Hornets, Trail Blazers, and Mavericks. They’ve covered in 3 of their last 4, and they’re in the top half of ATS teams this season. I really, really like this Utah team - and the trends tell us to like them ATS all week, as well. 

RECAP:
TOTD: D. Murray Points OVER
Atlanta ATS/ML
Hield Points UNDER
Ky. Anderson Rebounds OVER
Toronto Total OVER
Utah ATS

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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