Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (1/17/23)

Hey y’all, I’m Mitch, the newest writer for the Sharp App! I’m from Chicago, so I’m a homer for all things Chi-Town: Cubs, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears, and love college hoops around the area. Let’s dive in! 

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 1/14/23 RECAP: Since our last edition, Jalen Brunson has hit the OVER in both games he’s played in – and James Harden has kept dishing, dishing, dishing. Tre Jones has continued to increase his scoring, hitting his OVERS throughout the past few games as well. Those plays won me some nice money on some nice odds recently. The Nuggets were so-so, as they went 1-1 on Unders since the last time we talked. Finally, Klay Thompson didn’t play last night, and the Celtics blew out the Hornets twice – I guess that’s what you get when you play Charlotte. Let’s get into it. 

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: The Boston Celtics are running away with the 1st Seed in the Eastern Conference, and they’ve been powered by the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown - but their unsung hero this year has been 6th Man Malcolm Brogdon. Over his past five games, he’s been averaging 19.5 PPG, and clearing the Consensus Points Prop of 15.5 in each of those games (including last night’s 16 point-effort). The Celtics don’t play a team over .500 all week, Tatum might be on some load management, and who knows how long Brown is going to be out with his injury – look for Brogdon to cash in for himself, and also for you. 

Other Trends:

1. The most confusing team in the league to me are the Dallas Mavericks – I had the pleasure of watching them in-person get destroyed in Milwaukee back in November, and they haven’t clicked consistently all season. Oh, and did I mention they’re the WORST ATS team all season? They’re 1-3 against the spread in the past week, and they’ve been BAD lately - let’s fade them ATS all week against the surging Hawks, and I don’t trust them to cover any number against the Heat and Clippers later this week. 

2. There have been times over the past few years when Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard looks like the best player in the world. Over the past week, he’s definitely been in that conversation - averaging 39 PPG, and scoring over 30 in each of his last five games. Admittedly though, he’s got a tough week ahead of him - Nuggets, 76ers, and Lakers can be really tough defensive teams when they want to - but if we’re following the trends, he’s been successful against these teams in the past (avg. 35 v Denver, 41 v Los Angeles, and hasn’t played PHI yet) - so let’s ride his scoring trend for this week. 

3. Last night, Houston Rockets C Alperen Sengun had the best night of his young career, posting 33-15-6 in the loss to the Lakers. The 20-year-old is not a prolific scorer, and he’s mostly known for his rebounding (8.6 RPG), but his assist numbers have been outstanding the past week - he’s never hit lower than 6 assists in his past four games, after only averaging 3 APG so far this season - and his Consensus Assists line is hovering around 3.5-4.5. Not sure what’s cooking in Houston, but with games against the Hornets and Timberwolves twice in the next week, there may be openings to hit the OVER 4.5 assists here coming up.

4. We all know that the Philadelphia 76ers are OVERS MACHINES this season (26-17, fourth overall). Want to know their Over percentage when they’re favorites and on rest? The OVER is hitting at 65% when they’re the favorite, and 67% when they’re on rest. They’ll play the Clippers, Trail Blazers, and Kings all on rest, and will probably be favored in all of them. That, my friends, is what we call a trend. Philly Overs will continue.

5. Can I tell you the weirdest trend that I’m following in the league right now? It’s probably because they’ve had the easiest schedule of any team this season so far, but… the Chicago Bulls are 18-9-2 ATS when against the Eastern Conference so far this year. That’s the best covering percentage in the entire league. And guess who they’ve got, all week long? Eastern Conference opponents Detroit and Atlanta. Who knows, maybe Paris will be good to Chicago like it was in '97, and they’ll not only cover, but they’ll start winning, too. 

RECAP:
TOTD: Brogdon Points OVER
Fade Mavericks ATS
Lillard Points OVER
Sengun Assists OVER
76ers OVER
Bulls ATS

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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