Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (04/01/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 3/28/23 RECAP: Is this an April Fools joke or something? Boston played three times over the past week, and went OVER in all three - even holding the Bucks to 99 points. Ugh. Chicago went 1-1 in their Overs, and the Pacers went 1-1 ATS this week. Luckily, our players held us up this week, salvaging what could have been an abysmal week; Robinson went 1-1, Kawhi’s pick went 2-0, and Maxey went 1-1. This week, once again, quite the April Fools joke, we went 6-7, our first losing week in nearly a month and a half. One Tyrese Maxey 3, or Chicago Over, from a winning week. We’ll look to rebound here as the season comes to a close.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: The Oklahoma City Thunder are officially in “What are we doing?” territory. They sit SGA relatively every other game, and they have a tough stretch in their final four games of the season, facing four West Playoff teams - things are looking tough for the final push to make the Play-In. That being said, the best ATS team all season long is sputtering in recent weeks, as they haven’t covered a game since March 21st - that’s six straight games ATS they’ve dropped. They face a tough and hungry Phoenix team tomorrow, which is going to be looking to trounce this team young team before their own title-dreams begin. Let’s fade the best ATS team - no April Fools here.

Other Trends:

1. While the rest of the East is gearing up for a sustained run in the playoffs, the Miami Heat seem to be sputtering after three straight tough losses to Conference opponents. They’ve failed to cover in three straight games and have a tough ATS stretch coming up, as they will face Dallas (a toss up, always) and Detroit this week. While they currently hold the seven seed (the first seed in the Play-In Tournament), I don’t see them catching up to the Nets over the course of the last two weeks. Let’s fade them this weekend ATS, and watch them continue to fall in the standings.

2. Ja Morant on a leave was the best thing to happen to SG Desmond Bane, as he was able to fully develop into the exhilarating scorer that many expected him to be after this past season. He’s in the Top 30 in the league this year in scoring and has been taking a whole lot of threes to get him to his scoring numbers. His Consensus 3-Point Prop is 2.5, a number that should be easily surpassed against Chicago tomorrow; let’s take his O2.5 3’s, as he’s hit this number in five of his last seven games.

3. The Dallas Mavericks are going to try and do everything they can to right this ship and contend for a title, but their stars have been sputtering a bit as of late. PG Kyrie Irving has had his Consensus Points Prop at 23.5 over the past two weeks or so, and he has failed to hit that in four straight games. Defenses are closing in on the controversial PG more than ever, and Miami is a great defensive team - let’s take his Points Under as Luka will probably look to be more dominant in the last five games of the season.

4. Another team that’s plummeting in the standings are the Portland Trail Blazers, who are in a free-fall to end their season - they haven’t won since 3/22 and they have only covered in two out of their last six, losing three straight ATS. They’ve got a couple of Playoff-driven teams on their schedule this weekend, as they’ll take on Minnesota and Memphis, two teams that have been incredibly hot recently. Let’s fade this BAD team ATS, as I trust good teams to cover whatever points the books decide to put on the table.

5. Has anyone checked on SG Anthony Edwards? Over his past five games, he’s scored: 8, 13, 17, 31, 11. Um, what? Even though he’s consistently playing near forty minutes per game, he isn’t scoring at a high rate. Last night against the Lakers, he shot 4-16 from the field, and if the T-Wolves are going to thrive heading into the postseason, he’s going to have to step it up. The trends tell us to take his Under 25.5 prop though, so that’s what we’ll do; 26 points is a lot of points for a player struggling that mightily. Lots of Unders today, and Ant is no different.

RECAP:
TOTD: Fade OKC ATS
Fade Miami ATS
Bane Over 3’s
Irving Points Under
Fade Portland ATS
Edwards Points Under

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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