Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (03/18/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 3/14/23 RECAP: Josh Hart’s rebounding Overs, my Trend of the Day, went 1-0 this week, to lead an overall positive week! Thunder not only won twice, but won ATS as well; Jimmy scored 23 to cash his 22.5 Point prop, and Jabari Smith went OFF last night, but went 1-1 on the week for rebounds. Washington went 1-1 and the Atlanta Over missed by ONE point last night. Overall, we went 6-3 – good for 22-16 in the month of March so far.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: Oh my. This might be the worst time to be a fan of the Golden State Warriors. It’s been noted here before how BAD the Dubs are on the road (6-28 ATS), and they’re in the middle of their longest road trip of the season. Tonight they’ve got Memphis (MEM -3), and then they travel to Houston and Dallas before coming back home in a week. Let’s fade the Warriors this week, because losing on the road might be the biggest trend of the entire year for this team.

Other Trends:

1. Someone who has struggled to stay on the floor and produce consistently is Milwaukee’s SG Khris Middleton, who is averaging 14 PPG this season. Jrue Holiday has taken over as the number two option on this championship -contending team, leading Middleton to get more boards and play defense. Because of his reputation, squares are consistently putting money on his Points Over; in reality, his Points Prop is inflated to 19.5 - a margin he’s only hit Over in two of his last ten games. This is a huge trend to hop on - one I’m confident on this weekend as Milwaukee hosts Toronto on Sunday. Let’s take his Points Under.

2. Rather quietly, the Philadelphia 76ers have won seven straight games, and covered in five out of those seven. They’ve covered in three straight, and love to beat up on bad teams - as of writing this, they’re favored by six against Indiana, who played last night. They’ve proven that they can cover big numbers and small numbers, so let’s look for them to beat up on the Central Division this week, and cover the spread as well.

3. While the San Antonio Spurs gave up the biggest lead of the season last night, it wasn’t because of PF Zach Collins; he’s averaging 24 PPG over his last three, and has hit the Over on his Consensus Points Prop (of 13.5) by TEN in each of his last three. Overall, in the month of March, he’s hit over 13.5 in five out of his last six games. The Spurs may be bad, but their overall scoring has risen recently, so let’s take the big man’s Points Over before the sports books react accordingly.

4. While the Brooklyn Nets have been inconsistent as of late, someone who has been an anchor for them all season long has been C Nic Claxton; he’s averaging 12.5 & 9 on the season. His rebounding numbers have stayed consistent, but I’m looking at his recent scoring trends - over his past five, he’s hit over 11.5 Consensus Points Prop in four of them, with the only loss being when he scored 11. This line will always be tight because he doesn’t get a huge share of the ball each night, but look for him to score this weekend against a struggling Denver team on Sunday.

5. The Phoenix Suns are a team that have been up and down since the Kevin Durant trade; recently, they’ve gone on streaks of four wins and three losses, but one thing is consistent; they’re putting up points. In their last seven games, they’ve hit the Over in five of them, pushed one, and lost one. Against scrappy teams like OKC and LAL this week, I’d look for them to continue to put up points on weak defenses - win or lose, let’s take the Suns’ Total Points Over.

RECAP:
TOTD: Fade Golden State ATS
Middleton Points Under
Philadelphia ATS
Collins Points Over
Claxton Points Over
Phoenix Total Points Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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