Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (03/07/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 3/4/23 RECAP: Fading New Orleans was the right move, as the Kings took care of business at home last night. Okogie and Jalen Williams both went over and Mann went under, as expected, and both fading Boston and Cleveland Overs went 1-1. We went 6-2 overall for around 4 units of profit this week. In the last three weeks, we’re 21-10. Let’s look for that to continue this week!

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: These are the Phoenix Suns we were worried about. After an up-and-down performance all game against the Mavericks, they relied on Kevin Durant to close it out - and that he did. They’re 3-0 in their past three and have covered in each one of them. They look like they could be the hottest team in the league, and they’ve got some opponents coming up to prove it, when they welcome OKC and the Kings at home this week (where they’re 17-13 ATS). I believe in them to get it done ATS.

Other Trends:

1. The Miami Heat have been up and down over their past few games, and a lot of their game hinges on the back of C Bam Adebayo. Although he’s been great this season (averaging 21/10/3), his rebounding numbers have actually been down over his past four games; his Consensus Rebounds Prop has been situated around his season average at 9.5, but he’s succeeded in hitting that number only once in his past seven since the All-Star Break. I don’t see the prop moving too far away from his season average, so let’s take the Under on Adebayo’s rebounds this week when they host the Cavaliers twice at home.

2. While the Milwaukee Bucks might currently be a wagon in the East, they have something pretty consistent about their play: on the road, they slow their tempo. In their last 11 games, the Under is 7-4; on the season while on the road, Milwaukee is 9-22 on the Over. That’s less than 30% of the time; they’re on the road against Orlando tonight, and then back at home against Brooklyn on Thursday (who is 15-17 on the road on Overs, 29-34 on Overs on the season). The recipe is calling for Buck Unders this week.

3. Someone has to do it all for the Charlotte Hornets, and this past week, it’s been F Kelly Oubre, Jr, who has come back from injury to average 24 points and 8 rebounds in his last four. His Consensus Rebound Prop is at 6.5 (with generally plus money on the Over), and he’s cleared that easily in four out of his last five since he’s been back. He’s playing the LaMelo Ball role, doing everything recently - let’s take his Rebounding Over this week against the Knicks and Pistons.

4. The Denver Nuggets might be my favorite, official pick to win the championship. It also helps that they’re a betting man’s dream; they’re on a small run ATS. They’re 4-2 ATS since the All-Star Break, and they’ve got Chicago and San Antonio this week - two teams they should blow out of the water. In their last four, they’ve won on average by thirteen points. They should cover easily versus these two teams; let’s take the Nuggets ATS (which has been profitable all season).

5. Finally, even after Brooklyn imploded their team, they still find themselves on the winning end of some games, and it has a lot to do with the play of PG Spencer Dinwiddie, who scored 24/8/8 in his last win this weekend. What I’m looking at though is his Consensus Assists Prop, which is at 6.5 in most books; he’s hit at least eight assists in each of his last five games. The Nets are clicking and they’ve got Houston tonight (followed by the Bucks and Wolves later this week). Let’s take his Assists Over this week as he settles back at home in Brooklyn.

RECAP:
TOTD: Phoenix ATS
Adebayo Rebounds Under
Milwaukee Points Under
Oubre, Jr. Rebounds Over
Denver ATS
Dinwiddie Assists Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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