Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (03/04/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 2/28/23 RECAP: I told y’all that the GSW are going to go on a run – they’ve won four straight and are on a roll, 3-0 this week. Tate’s rebounds went under in his only game, while Portland really let us down this week (and lost last night’s total by ONE POINT). MPJ hit his points over too, while Minnesota bounced back and we went 0-2. Overall this week, we went 6-4 – on a run, though, as we’re 15-8 in the last two weeks.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:  The craziest statistic I came across this week: in their last sixteen games, the New Orleans Pelicans have been consistent at one thing: if they WIN the game, they cover; if they LOSE the game, they don’t cover. Since then they’re 5-11 straight up, and also 5-11 ATS. I don’t have a specific prediction here - but they’ve got Sacramento this weekend. I think they lose that game; therefore, let’s fade them ATS in this one specific game. That’s just so crazy.

Other Trends:

1. One of the purest, high-percentage scorers of the past week has been a Forward for the Phoenix Suns. Oh, you thought I was talking about Kevin Durant? In the past eight games, F Josh Okogie has burst into the scene, hitting over his Consensus Points Prop of 9.5 in seven of those eight games (including a great showing last night against Chicago). He consistently takes good shots, making over 50% of his shots in six of those last eight. He’s a scoring machine right now, and Phoenix is looking good heading into the last stretch of the season; let’s take the 24-year-old’s Points Over.

2. A staple of this season has been Cleveland’s defense, but it’s really been letting them down recently; they’ve lost four out of their last five and they’re giving up a LOT of points in these losses. Sports books are still keeping their O/U low; overall, they’re one of the best Under teams on the year. Yet, despite all of this, the Over has been on a roll, hitting in four of their last five. They’ve got Detroit, Boston, and Miami this week - which means that the totals will be manageable. Look for the Over to continue, and for this team to regress to the mean.

3. It seems like someone always steps up for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and since the All-Star Break, it’s been SG Jalen Williams (not to be confused with Jaylin Williams, also on OKC). While the books have slowly crept up to his newfound scoring run (his Consensus Points Prop is at 16.5), he’s averaged 20 PPG in his last eight games and he’s only missed that mark once in his past five games (where he scored 15 points). Let’s take his Over while SGA is out (and I still believe in him to reach his totals with SGA in the lineup, too).

4. Obviously the Boston Celtics are one of the few teams that will definitely be in contention for the title this year – but despite them winning four of their last six, they haven’t hit a win ATS since February 25th (including a surprising loss last night). They’ve got really scrappy teams in New York, Cleveland, Portland, and Atlanta this upcoming week, which can absolutely pose a threat for them to drop these games if they aren’t close. While they’ve been great, let’s look for some positive regression in our favor, and fade Boston ATS (which seems crazy. I know. But around here, we Follow the Trends…).

5. The Clippers are in a really bad stretch recently – losers of four straight – but it’s because of a lack of scoring on their bench. SG Terance Mann has had really bright spots in moments this season, but is in a really bad funk - even in 22+ minutes per game, he’s struggling to hit his 8.5 Consensus Points Prop (scoring 5, 4, and 7 in his last three games). There are too many scorers on this team, and he’s not taking more than four shots a game - very hard to score more than 8 PPG when you’re not taking shots. Let’s take Mann’s Points Under for now, until he regains his form.

RECAP:
TOTD: Fade New Orleans ATS
Okogie Points Over
Cleveland Total Points Over
Jal. Williams Points Over
Fade Boston ATS
Mann Points Under

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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