Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (02/28/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 2/24/23 RECAP: The Kings hit the Over in their only game (depending on what line you got!), and Jamal Murray went 1-1 in his bet. San Antonio continued to lose, Charlotte continued to win (including a great win last night), and Cam Thomas continued to ball out off the bench for the Nets. Overall, we went 5-2, and we’re feeling good going into this week. We’re 9-4 in the last week when we Follow the Trends!

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:  The LA Lakers have accumulated three quality wins in a row, and it’s in large part to star big man F Anthony Davis. He’s quietly put up 24/15/2 over the past five games, and he’s been the cornerstone of their offense and defense since the All-Star Break. His Consensus Rebounds Prop is around 11.5 across all sportsbooks, and I expect him to continue to pull down boards as the Lakers go on a run here. If the Lakers are going to make a huge run into the Playoffs here in the last twenty games or so, they need him to control the game down low – he knows the assignment, and I expect him to continue to pull down rebounds. Let’s take the OVER!

Other Trends:

1. How about Damian Lillard single-handedly beating Houston this weekend? Portland essentially has two outcomes: they either score A LOT, or they give up A LOT of points. They’ve hit the Total Points Over in seven of their last nine games, and the Over is 2-0 since the ASB. Lillard’s current Consensus O/U points stands around 36.5; anny time a player on your team is expected to score that many points, your team has a good chance of hitting the Over. With Golden State, New Orleans, and Atlanta coming up, expect a whole lot of points – take the Over.

2. This is definitely a little nit-picky, but Houston’s F Jae’Sean Tate has been someone forced into the big man role - he’s averaging 13/2/2 in 25 minutes over the past five games. Although he gets minutes, he doesn’t get boards (really, no one in Houston does). His Consensus Rebounds is at 4.5, and he’s hit below that each of his past four games. He’s definitely someone who can come out of nowhere and grab boards, but for now, he hasn’t shown it; take Tate’s Under in Rebounds.

3. I hate to go against a team again and again, but the trends speak for themselves; the Minnesota Timberwolves are on a bit of a tailspin. They’ve lost three straight, and haven’t covered in three straight (and 4 of 5). They have no clear direction, and they have a TOUGH week this week against some surging teams in the Clippers, Lakers, and Kings, all on the road. They’re 12-17 ATS this year, and I don’t see them covering against any of these teams this week.

4. As the Denver Nuggets continue to be an absolute wagon, one of the stars of the team has been F Michael Porter, Jr. His scoring over the past six games has ballooned, hitting 21 PPG (including 29 on Sunday night) and he’s hit over his Consensus 15.5 Points Prop in three out of his last four games by a substantial margin. Let’s take MPJ’s Points Over this week against Houston and Memphis.

5. The Golden State Warriors may be without Steph, but they’ve won two straight out of the break and are hitting their stride, just in time to make the Playoffs. They beat Minnesota and Houston handily, and they’re at home against Portland and LA this week. They’re one of the best teams in the league at home despite their record, and it’s right about that time where they start to make a run - no Draymond should be no problem, so let’s take them ATS this week. 

RECAP:
TOTD: Davis Rebounds Over
Portland Total Points Over
Tate Rebounds Under
Fade Minnesota ATS
MPJ Points Over
Golden State ATS

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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