Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (02/25/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 2/21/23 RECAP: While we only have one game to base it off of, the trends did really, really well. While CP3 didn’t gain his 9.5 Assists and Atlanta didn’t hit the Under, everything else DID hit – Banchero, Lopez, Chicago Under, and NYK all helped me have one of my best betting stretches ever. I’m going to continue to play these until the books react, as the All-Star Break can make things uncomfortable for the books. I love today’s picks, too - so let’s get into it!

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:  One of the most electric teams in the NBA are the Sacramento Kings, who are quietly the THREE SEED in the Western Conference right now. They have been scoring at will for two straight weeks now, and they’ve got two games against OKC this week - this team has the making of a phenomenal Overs bet going against some high-powered teams. Oh, and they play the Clippers again on Friday. The Over is 7-1 in their last 8, even with totals nearing 240 - no defense is going to be played. Let’s take Sacramento Over this week.

Other Trends:

1. The Denver Nuggets are one of the premier teams in the league, and it’s been in part to the masterful play of PG Jamal Murray. While he’s been the second option to Jokic, he’s been scoring super well lately - his Consensus Points+Assists Prop is usually at 28.5, and he’s hit over that in four out of his last five games (besides Thursday against a good defense in CLE). He’s got Memphis, LAC, and Houston this week - and I expect his scoring and distributing to continue. The offense runs through him in 50% of the possessions down the floor, so look for him to hit his Points+Assists Over.

2. The San Antonio Spurs are a lost cause this year, and they’ve been on a mission to tank recently, losers of FIFTEEN straight. In those fifteen straight losses, they’ve only covered twice, and they’re 10-20 ATS when they’re the road team. Utah, who they play TWICE in the No Name Saloon this week, are pretty good ATS at home. Let’s continue to fade SAS, even if they pick up one of these two games against the Jazz.

3. The 76ers have won five straight and have the most difficult schedule out of any team in the NBA over the next six weeks of the season. Obviously Embiid and Harden get a lot of the spotlight, but in these tough games, I look for them to get a larger share of the ball - which means that the third option in the starting lineup, F Tobias Harris, might see less and less of the ball. His Consensus Points Prop is at 13.5, and he has only hit that once over his last four, averaging 11 PPG. Let’s take Harris’ Points Under for this week against some tough opponents.

4. Something might be clicking in Charlotte? The Hornets have won three straight and have covered in all three games. This is an incredibly streaky team, and they’ve got Miami, Detroit, and Phoenix to start their four game homestand. While they aren’t great ATS at home this year, it definitely can’t hurt. Let’s take them ATS this week as they should be comfortable in the Spectrum Center.

5. Fine, I’ll finally talk about Nets SG Cam Thomas. He had a breakout start to his career once Durant was traded, but has come back to Earth - with the books overcompensating. At some books, you can still get his Points Prop at O/U 11.5 - while most hover around 13.5. Sometimes he starts and sometimes he doesn’t, but even in the blowout last night in Chicago, he put up 22. He’s hit over 13.5 in three of his last five, and I expect him to continue to get minutes for Brooklyn - someone’s gotta score eventually, right? Cam Thomas Points Over is the move.

RECAP:
TOTD: Sacramento Points Over
Murray Points+Assists Over
Fade San Antonio ATS
Harris Points Under
Charlotte ATS
Thomas Points Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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