Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (02/14/23)

Hey y’all, I’m Mitch! I’m from Chicago, so I’m a homer for all things Chi-Town: Cubs, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears, and love college hoops around the area. Let’s dive in! 

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 2/11/23 RECAP: Not a ton of basketball over the past three days, and as we approach the All-Star Break, just be weary of a few of the trends - not a huge sample size. We made some BIG money this week, as Kyrie went 2-for-2 on Assists, Vuc hit the Over on Rebounds twice, Cleveland covered once, Charlotte went 1-1 on covering, Murphy hit his over, and Golden State hit their Over once. Overall, we went 8-3 on the weekend - a super profitable time to Follow the Trends.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:  C Jarrett Allen is so multi-functional for the Cleveland Cavaliers; he’s not only a mentor and a leader for C Evan Mobley, but he is himself scoring at the highest pace of his career - over the past week, he’s averaging 21 PPG & 12 RPG. I expect that to continue into the rest of the week, as he’s just facing off against Joel Embiid and the 76ers this week - I love Cleveland recently, and he’s a huge part of it. I’m going to be taking his Points + Rebounding numbers, which are currently sitting at 26.5 as a Consensus.Over, Over, Over.

Other Trends:

1. The Detroit Pistons, even in their losing record, are a fun team - I promise you. They’ve got a lot of young talent to be excited about, and someone who has emerged this week is C Jalen Duren. The Memphis product is averaging 16 PPG, 10 RPG over the past week, while their averages this year are 9 PPG and 8 RPG. He’s in the starting lineup, and probably won’t leave for a while - which is going to mean more and more opportunities to build on his scoring. His Consensus Points Prop is around 11.5, which is a huge discrepancy - let’s ride the over on his scoring prop while the numbers stay low.

2. The Miami Heat have quietly risen to seven games above .500, but they are just simply so bad at covering. They’re 21-33 on the year ATS, and they’re 1-6 in their last seven ATS. They’re a good defensive team, but they can’t keep games close in close spreads, and they can’t cover large numbers. They’ve got Brooklyn later this week, which they’ll be favored in, but with the up-and-down-ness of the Nets, who knows. Let’s fade them ATS. 

3. I could copy and paste the Miami paragraph here, but I’ll elaborate a little more - ever since Golden State lost Steph, they haven’t been able to cover. In the past seven games they’re 2-6 ATS including last night’s win against Washington. They’re not the same team. They’ve got a hot team in the LA Clippers tonight on a back-to-back, so let’s fade them ATS, too. 

4. I never prey on a player’s downfall. But simply put, PF/C Jaren Jackson, Jr. can’t stay on the court. He can’t help jumping at pump fakes. He can’t avoid fouling shooters driving the lane. When he’s on the bench, that means that the big man can’t get boards - as seen over his past week, where he’s averaging 5.3 RPG opposed to his 7.5 Consensus Rebounds Prop. I know it isn’t a huge value play, but they’re coming up on good rebounding teams in Utah and Philly. Let’s take JJJ’s Unders on Rebounding. 

5. They used to not hit Overs, and now they literally cannot stop. The Minnesota Timberwolves are the streakiest Over/Under team in the league, including last night against Dallas, making it six straight Overs. They’ve got one game left before the break against Washington, and that will probably hit the Over, too. Look for them to continue to score heading into a long weekend, win or loss. 

RECAP:
TOTD: Allen Points+Rebounds Over
Duren Points Over
Fade Miami ATS
Fade Golden State ATS
Jackson, Jr. Rebounds Under
Minnesota Total Points Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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