Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (02/11/23)

Hey y’all, I’m Mitch! I’m from Chicago, so I’m a homer for all things Chi-Town: Cubs, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears, and love college hoops around the area. Let’s dive in! 

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 2/7/23 RECAP: The Orlando Magic went 1-1, with a HUGE win over Denver on Thursday night. Atlanta Overs went 0-2, Memphis ATS went 2-0, and Achiuwa / Hartenstein did exactly the opposite of what I thought they would do. Finally, Bridges got traded after hitting his Points Under on Tuesday night. Whew. Really, really tough week. This is why I always try to balance what bets I’m placing - I encourage you to use matchups in the Sharp App Props section to determine whether a bet is right to place or not!

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:  While he put up a fight in Brooklyn, it simply wasn’t a right place for him. Now that PG Kyrie Irving, as he believes, is “freed” from his old team and on the Mavericks, there’s one specific trend I think will continue, and that was showcased last night: Irving is going to become the James Harden of Dallas, and start to get his assist averages way up. He had ten assists last night, and I think Luka is playing with a chip on his shoulder; he needs the ball, and Irving is the one to get it to him. Look for Irving Assists to PILE up.

Other Trends:

1. Shoutout whoever in the Sharp App Discord who said “Death, Taxes, and Vucevic Rebounding Overs” – because they’re right. C Nikola Vucevic has hit the Over on his Consensus Rebounds Prop in each of the past five games (over 11.5) besides when he got 11 in Portland a week ago, and he’s one of the most stable bets you can make right now. Chicago doesn’t really have anyone else to rebound the ball, and he’s grabbing everything when he’s on the floor. Let’s take his Rebound Over. 

2. Cleveland Rocks. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-0 this past week and they’ve covered in each of the past five games, absolutely obliterating teams over that stretch (winning by an average of NINETEEN POINTS PER GAME) and they’ve got three out of their next four at home. They’re statistically the best ATS team at home this season, and they’ve got Chicago (where the line is hovering around -5), and we’ve seen Sharp Money come in on the Cavs numerous times this season. Let’s take Cleveland ATS this week. 

3. I know that, statistically, they aren’t the worst team in the league. But as of late, they are the worst team playing right now, as they’ve lost six straight games. The Charlotte Hornets are bad, and they simply can’t cover, either; they’ve lost by big margins in multiple games, and couldn’t even cover +10.5 last night against Boston. They’re starting a little homestand, which should be good to them, but they lose home games, too. Against the Nuggets (-8), Hawks, and Spurs, I expect their ATS losing streak to continue. 

4. I think the team I hate putting my faith in the most are the New Orleans Pelicans, who don’t really have any scoring threats besides Brandon Ingram right now. Enter: SG Trey Murphy III. Murphy has been red hot lately, scoring over his Consensus Points Prop of 12.5 in each of his last four (by an average of 9 PPG) and, like I said in my last article about Bridges, SOMEONE has to score. Murphy isn’t leaving the starting lineup, and let’s ride with his Points Over while we are still getting manageable expectations. 

5. Finally, whether Curry is in or out, the Golden State Warriors still score. They’re the BEST Over team in the league, hitting the Total Points Over in 62% of their games (and six of their last seven). That’s crazy. Most of their upcoming games will have HIGH totals, with tonight’s games against the Lakers up around 238.5 - which is a really high number - but I still like them to hit it. This is why we ride trends, people! GSW Total Points Over.

RECAP:
TOTD: Irving Assists Over
Vucevic Rebounds Over
Cleveland ATS
Fade Charlotte ATS
Murphy III Points Over
Golden State Total Points Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using promo code Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!