Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (02/07/23)

Hey y’all, I’m Mitch! I’m from Chicago, so I’m a homer for all things Chi-Town: Cubs, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears, and love college hoops around the area. Let’s dive in! 

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 2/4/23 RECAP: Milwaukee is 2-0 ATS since we last talked - and they’re not looking to slow down. Fred VanVleet didn’t score well in his one game since we last talked, and Chicago made me look silly from last week. Nesmith had one game to prove himself, and he fell flat, too. Detroit Unders continued (as I really expected they would), and finally, Nance Jr. hit the Over twice, which was awesome for bettors like me. We went up at least two units this past week - let’s keep riding the trends!

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:  The Orlando Magic are one of the most exciting teams in the entire league (on my personal League Pass All-Stars) to watch, even if they’re bad. They’re led by young talent and have been one of the best ATS in the league, going 31-22-1 on the season. They’re 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as well, and 3-1 ATS this past week - simply put, they keep games close. They’ve got New York, Miami, and Denver this week - teams that are average, or below-average, ATS. Let’s put our faith in Orlando ATS this week, as they always play hard. And if not, at least they’ll probably be entertaining.
Other Trends:

1. The Atlanta Hawks are a team that have fallen under the radar this season, as they’ve been hovering around .500 all season. That being said, they’ve been scoring some of the most points in the league consistently, averaging over 120 PPG this past week. Their 8th in scoring this year – really consistent numbers across the board. The Over is 5-1 in their last 6, and 9-2 in their last 11 – and with teams like New Orleans and San Antonio this week, I don’t think there’s a number high enough that I wouldn’t consider the Over. They’re scoring well, so let’s take the Over in their games this week. 

2. Someone’s gotta score in Phoenix. SG Mikal Bridges has taken on the scoring role, getting to the basket more often than ever. He’s averaging 24 PPG in this past week, and he’s never scored lower than his 22.5 Consensus Points Prop in four straight games. He’s in the top 50 scorers in two-point baskets this week, which is uncommon for a lot of guards – and he’s taking a lot of shots, too. Let’s continue to build on his scoring and take the Over in points for Bridges. 

3. A team that opposes the Magic (mentioned above) are the Memphis Grizzlies, who are one of the worst ATS teams this year – this week, they went 0-3 ATS and came away losers in 8 of their last 9 games. They’re also 2-7 ATS in that timeframe, and they’re just simply not clicking. They play Chicago, Minnesota, and Boston this week, and I expect all of these games to be close, or even have the opposing team win. Let’s fade Memphis ATS this week. The All-Star Break could not come quick enough for this team. 

4. When we’re talking about some of the roughest, toughest big men in the league, that conversation has to include PF/C Isaiah Hartenstein of the New York Knicks. He’s hit over 10 rebounds in each of his last four games, but his Consensus Rebounds Prop is around 7.5 rebounds - now that he’s starting more often and getting more playing time, he’s executing at the highest level. Knicks play tough defense, and so there’s lots of opportunities to grab some boards - let’s take his rebounding Over. 

5. A few weeks ago, Toronto F Precious Achiuwa was a player that I expected to trend upwards - he was someone who was putting up 17-27 points over a stretch earlier this year. He has come back down to earth since then, scoring less than his 13.5 Consensus Points Prop in four straight games.  He’s still getting the same minutes - averaging over 30 minutes/game - but his scoring numbers are way down. It makes me wonder if the Points Prop will follow - but for now, I’m going to take the Under on his points. 

RECAP:
TOTD: Orlando ATS
Atlanta Total Points Over
Bridges Points Over
Fade Memphis ATS
Hartenstein Rebounds Over
Achiuwa Points Under

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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