Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (03/11/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 3/7/23 RECAP: Phoenix, my Trend of the Day, cashed easily this week (even without KD). Bam Adebayo went 2-0 on Unders for his rebounds, even though the line moved TWICE this week to better accommodate the books. Milwaukee Unders went 1-1, while Oubre and Denver ATS went 0-2. We rounded out the week with Dinwiddie going Over in his Assists – we’re 5-5 this week for positive money, and 26-15 since February 24th. 

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: A lot of people in the Sharp App Discord (linked below) love “first basket” props. One of the names that gets thrown around often is C Ivica Zubac, who is one of the most prominent first scorers in the league. His Consensus Points Prop is at 8.5, which he’s cleared in four of his last five. Think of it this way: he’s got the first basket on lock, and then he only needs three more layups to go down the entire rest of the game (my actual analysis: he’s averaging 10.7 PPG over his last ten. Let’s look for his scoring Overs to continue this week against New York and Golden State).

Other Trends:

1. Kendrick Lamar spoke in his last album, “I love when you count me out” - and I think the Brooklyn Nets have taken this to heart. They’ve won four of their last five, including a tough loss to Milwaukee this past week - but they’ve covered in five straight games. Everyone counted this team out after Kyrie & KD were traded, but they are still clinging on to the 6th Seed in the East. They seem to keep every game competitive recently, so let’s take them this week ATS against Denver and OKC. 

2. Sacramento picked up a huge win against the New York Knicks this week, and it’s been in part because of the current tear that SG Kevin Huerter has been on over his past few games. His Consensus Points Prop is at 15.5 across every book, and he’s hit well over that number in four out of his last five games. Sacramento spreads the wealth around every night, and is always guaranteed to score a lot of points, so look for him to continue to get his minutes and hit the points over against the Suns, Bucks, and Bulls.

3. Scoring has been super prominent this season across all teams, and this has caused most teams to be right around even in season Over/Unders. This is especially true for the Indiana Pacers, who are 33-33-1 on the season - yet, they’ve scored Total Points Overs in each of their last three games. Some may see regression in their future, but I’m not sure - they’ve got Detroit TWICE this week. Detroit won’t play any defense in at least one of these games, and their shooters are hot enough to carry this offense to the Overs. Let’s take the Pacers Overs this week against the league’s worst team.

4. We’ve talked about how much fun the Knicks have been this year, and a lot of it has been on the coattails of Randle & Brunson. Yet, a really solid sidekick that has emerged recently is G/F RJ Barrett, who is finding himself in this offense finally. His Consensus Points Prop is around 19.5, but he’s hit that Over in each of his last three games (and falling one point short in the game before). As Randle’s PPG numbers regress, Barrett is getting more open looks and shooting more than 20 times per game. Whether or not this is Thibs’ game plan remains to be seen, but if we trust the trends, Barrett’s Points Over should continue to hit.

5. While the Lakers’ season is looking up recently (6-2 in their last four), they are playing much better defense with Lebron out of the lineup, and Vanderbilt playing a much bigger role in on-ball defense. This week, they’re coming off the heels of four straight Unders (besides the fluke last night), and they’re playing New York and New Orleans this week - I don’t see any way that these games don’t stay Under, especially with these teams struggling to hit Overs themselves.

RECAP:
TOTD: Zubac Points Over
Brooklyn ATS
Huerter Points Over
Indiana Total Over
Barrett Points Over
LAL Points Under

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using promo code Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!