Anthony P's NBA Model January 6, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 6, 2023

Turned out the under was the play in the Dallas game. Oh my, what a beating! We have 4 spots of interest in tonight's slate.

There is not a big gap between the line in Indiana however still have close to 10% EV. Portland has dominated the Pacers going 15-5 ATS last 20 meetings. While Portland is a top 3 team shooting 3's, the Pacers are bottom in the league in defending them. Ill pass.

As for the New Orleans projections, I did remove Zion and Nance Jr. My model is still showing the Pels favorites and that is mostly due to how strong they've been at home. Defensively, the Pels will have issues containing the Nets without Zion and taking into consideration that Ingram is still out. Ill pass

OKC burnt me a couple of nights ago and now they face a hot Wizards team. This line moved slightly on the Wizards but the betting splits are 50/50 on both the tickets and the handles. The model likes OKC with SGA back and has them at -3.5. Both teams are very close in offensive and defensive metrics. It's a tough call.

It's been an ugly run for the Suns and their injuries have been a major factor. Offensively, they scored 171 pts in their last 2 games and shot 34% and 39% from the field! Terrible. They can't do that at home! Miami is 7th in points allowed per 100 possession and 3rd in points against per game therefore the Suns might be in for a long night! The sharp money is on the Heat moving the line from +1.5 to -2.5 and that is when the value opened on the Suns. My lean is on Miami.


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