Anthony P's NBA Model January 5, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 5, 2023

Sacramento broke many hearts last night. The model was accurate on Minnesota. The under in Charlotte was something I said I was scared of and even with the line move to 237 it still went over therefore I was glad we faded that. The model liked the under in LA and I was on the same side. That one was a winner.

We have a small 4-game slate tonight and the model likes the Mavs and the under. The Mavs have won 7 straight and the only thing I can think about for the Celtics is that 44.5 ATS lost where they gave up 150 points to the Thunder. The Celtics own 70% of the handle but the line hasn't moved. The tickets are close to 50/50. It's a hard game to handicap if we overthink this but the truth is that the Celtic's defense is struggling on the road while the Mavs have been solid at home and Luka seems unstoppable. I'd wait and see where this line goes. If the squares move on Boston and Dallas gets 5 or more pts at home then we have no choice but to lock in Dallas. In the meantime, my lean is definitely on Dallas.

The under, dont touch it.

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