Anthony P's NBA Model January 27, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 27, 2023

I will be back with an update around 2 pm.

UPDATE:

OKC features again with some value tonight. Last game they were in a similar spot in terms of value but I didn't pull the trigger since I can seem to get a pulse on the Hawks. OKC lost by 5 and I was glad I didn't play them or else my anger versus Atlanta would have grown even more. The EV is at 17% but the gap is just 1 basket now that the line moved from +1.5 to -1. Cleveland played last night and they are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS with no rest this season however can't seem to find any consistency as of late. They are 1-6 ATS following a win and 1-6 ATS following a straight-up win of over 10 points. It is close to a full month since they won back-to-back games.

It's important to note that I haven't included Love and Mitchell in my projections therefore if you like OKC and the value we must make sure both are not playing. Also to note, 4 of the 5 starters for Cleveland played over 30 minutes yesterday therefore we might see some players sitting this game. I know I sound like a fucking broken record but this is the NBA. This is why 90% of my bets are now placed closer to tip-off.

Dort is out for OKC and that will add to the size issues the Thunder will fight against in this matchup. I'll keep an eye on the injury reports and make a decision closer to tipoff.

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