Anthony P's NBA Model January 26, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 26, 2023

A rare day where we don't see much value as per the model. We have some teams that are playing on b2b and we will need to monitor the so-called stupid "load management" from the teams.

I will be back with an update around 2 pm.

UPDATE:

The only game that stands out is the Suns getting close to 8% EV. The model has them at -3 and the line is -1.5. It's not a huge gap but we should see the line move toward my projections. These teams are going opposite directions and momentum is on the Suns as they are 4-0 SU and ATS L4 while the Mavs have lost 5 of 6 and 1-5 ATS. No matter how I handicap this game I land on -3 and don't see any additional value however I would continue to fade the Mavs without Wood in their lineup. As for the Suns, we can say that they've been missing Booker and we don't see the same consistency from them. The good news for tonight is that they should be getting back Ayton. Dallas is 7-17 on the road this year and lost 4 of their last 5 road games. Their defense is ranked 27th in the last 2 weeks in points allowed per 100 possessions and the offense is missing Wood as secondary scoring.

I like the Suns tonight however it looks like they will turn into a square play based on the data in getting from the book this afternoon.


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