Anthony P's NBA Model January 25, 2023

Anthony P
Anthony P
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.
Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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The model was right about the Pacers yesterday. No matter how I handicapped that game, I just couldn't see how the Pacers could win the game.

Today, we have 4 spots the model is pointing us to. I'll dig into them this morning and share my thoughts before 2 PM.


The model is pointing value on the Rockets, Timberwolves, Thunder, and the under in Golden State.

I have no interest in the Rockets and I feel the same for the Wizards that played last night. We will probably see Washington take a lead in the first half and probably lose it in the second half and then sweat the rest. On paper, I prefer Washington. Beal is back and they won all 3 games but Porzingis is still out. I am not sure if the Wizards will rest anyone tonight but I do know that they are 0-5 ATS last 5 games in Houston.

OKC has a point differential of +10.1 in the last 2 weeks and a +13.9 spread differential. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 and 7-3 SU. They've also been amazing playing defense allowing the second-lowest PA per game at 109.3. In terms of efficiency differential, there is not much of a difference between these teams. OKC opened a 1 pt fav and moved to a 1 pt underdog with tickets and handle close to 50/50. Hunter and Okongo are questionable and the line move might be the market telling us they are playing.

Minnesota hit a new low on the road losing to Houston. Towns is out and Gobert is questionable. That is enough for me to not have much interest. New Orleans is also a mess with only 2 wins in their last 10. Ingram is probable tonight and that should give the Pels a boost. We should also expect Marshall to play. New Orleans played last night but their starters weren't taxed and if Ingram and Marshall play this can be a more rested team than we would think playing on a b2b.

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