Anthony P's NBA Model January 20, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 20, 2023

The Suns did get Johnson back last night but not Paul. Turns out they didn't need him to take care of the Nets. Johnson only played 21 minutes. Portland had a really bad first half and even though they gave a better effort in the second half it just wasn't enough.

Tonight the model has 2 games with a great EV. The Mavs opened a 1 pt favorite and the line moved against them and now a 1.5-pt underdog. I would have loved Dallas even more if Wood was in the lineup. He got hurt last game he's going to miss some time. Both teams are at the bottom of pace metrics and will match very well. The model has the Mavs as a 2.5 pt favorite at home and that gives us close to 21% EV but I have concerns about the way the Mavs have been playing defensively allowing 135 pt per game in their last 3. I would have thought the squares would have been all over the Heat but the Mavs currently hold 65% of the tickets. Dallas is very strong on a 1 day's rest with an 18-8 record this year and this will be their second home game after an unsuccessful 5 game road trip. I expect some positive regression from Dallas but as mentioned, their defensive game has me doubting the model in this game.

The second game is the under in LA. The Grizzlies own the top of the aDRTG ratings (points allowed per 100 possessions) while the Lakers are 20th in aORTG (points scored per 100 possessions) and we get a total that opened at 241 and moved to 243.5. WTF is going on here? The under is 12-3 in their last 15 meetings. This is a BIG number. Memphis has allowed 109 pts per game in the last 14 days and I can't see the Lakers top 110 pts tonight. This would mean that Memphis needs to score 133.5 while the spread is at -7.5. The only thing stopping me from slamming this total is that the sharp money is on the over as per the sharp report. Sharp money plays are 10-5 last 5 days and 36-21 (63%) in January. Who will be right on this one? Sharps or the model?

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