Anthony P's NBA Model January 19, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 19, 2023

The model was wrong on the Rockets yesterday and we saw once again how bad they are. The model hit the under in LA.

Tonight we have 2 more value plays on the Suns and Trail Blazers.

The value of the Suns depends on if Paul and Johnson play. If they don't I would say that the current line is accurate and there is no value. Johnson hasn't played since Nov 4 and reports have him playing tonight. Paul's last game was Jan 6th and he was upgraded to questionable. As for the Nets, Irving is set to come back also. The Suns have been bad and it's hard to support them hence they need Paul and Johnson for us to even consider them.

In the other game, we've got Portland at home versus the 76ers who have only lost 2 times in their last 10 games. The 76ers will be playing their 4th road game in 6 nights and haven't covered in Portland in their last 6 meetings and are 1-6-2 in their last 9. The model has Portland at -1.5 based on my net ratings however the book was giving us 3 pts overnight and the line dropped to +2. I would have to agree with the line base on Portland's recent play. They are 3-7 SU and ATS. In this case, we would be buying Portland very low and selling high on the 76ers based on their recent play. The 76ers are also a big square play and we love to fade the squares.

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