Anthony P's NBA Model January 18, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 18, 2023

The model was on the under in Denver and we got lucky. They scored 96 pts in the second half after scoring 140 in the first 2 quarters. The total opened at 233.5 and closed at 239.5. We had under 238.5.

We have 2 value plays tonight. The Rockets show +17% EV and the model has them at -2.5 while we are getting 2.5 pts. Clearly, the model thinks that the wrong team is the favorite in this game.

This feels like handicapping last night's NHL game between the Wings and the Coyotes. Both Houston and Charlotte have been terrible as of late. Charlotte is 2-8 SU L10 and Houston is 0-11 L11. Combined, they covered the spread 4 times in the last 20 games. These are 2 bad teams and on a neutral site, the game would be a pickem. The Hornets have the worst aDRTG rating in the last 3 weeks but the Rockets are 27th in scoring. Charlotte has the 3rd worst points scored per 100 possessions but has scored with more consistency than Houston. This is a shitty game folks but I'd lean on the model and the home team.

It's hard to support the under in LA tonight. The Kings have played in 5 straight overs and the games all topped 250 points. Market makers opened the total at 247 and dropped to 245.5. The model has this game at 233 with the Kings holding the second-best offense and 6th worst defense. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 games between the Kings and Lakers with the total going over by 11.8 pts per game. The only trend favoring the under is that the Kings under is 9-2 on the road when playing against a team with a winning home record. The Lakers just blasted 140 pts against Houston last game and I'm sure their offense is feeling good facing the Kings tonight. Betting the under tonight feels dangerous....

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