Anthony P's NBA Model February 7, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR FEB 7, 2023

I ended yesterday's article with this "I cannot support the under in this game since recent data is showing that Milwaukee can score between 130-140 pts alone in this game" I wasn't wrong about Milwaukee since they scored 127 but I was very surprised they contained Portland to 108. I did write about how great the Bucks have been playing defense but I was expecting Portland's offense to score more. Anyhow, the model was right!

Tonight the model likes the Pels at -1. The model has them at -3 and the EV is just above 17%. The market makers opened the Pens at -2 and the line dropped to -1 therefore the line is not moving toward the model's projection.

The Hawks will try and end their 5 game road trip with a win in Portland tonight. They are 2-2 and lost a bad one in Denver two nights ago. Atlanta has been bad on defense and owns the 6th worst points allowed per 100 possessions in the last 2 weeks. The Pels won back-to-back games thanks to an outburst in offense and if they keep this up against Atlanta's defense they can get their 3rd straight win. Not to ignore is that New Orleans will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights but they've been at home for all the games. The bottom line is which Pels offense will show up tonight? The one we've seen in the last 2 games or the 8 previous ones? Both Valanciunas and Ingram are probable tonight and the obvious is Ingram with his 35 pts performance on Feb 4 vs the Lakers. Young was upgraded to probable for tonight and he should be good to go.

I like the Pels tonight since the Hawks are in a tough spot at the end of a road trip. They've also been inconsistent and all the momentum seems to be on New Orleans.

Let's trust the model in this one!


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