Anthony P's NBA Model February 3, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR FEB 3, 2023

Alright, we are back with our daily notes.

We have one value play that the model is screaming at us to dig into. The Wizards are smoking hot being 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 games and dominating the spread with an average ATS margin wins of 12 pts. The defense has allowed on average 104 pts per game in their last 3 games and the total went under in all 3 games with an over/under of 15 pts from the posted total.

My model has this game at 225 while the books opened at 233.5 and it moved up to 236.5 overnight. Portland will still be without Nurkic tonight but it doesn't really make a dent in my projections and we can expect Portland's pace to increase without him. Nonetheless their great win in Memphis this week this team is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when facing teams with a winning home record. Also, the under is 16-5 in the last 21 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Up to now, the under looks pretty good right?

This will be Washington's first home game after a road trip and defense isn't usually in play and which is a concern for the under. The over is 6-0 this season in Washington's first game back after a road trip of 2 or more games. In the last 14 days, Portland has the #1 offense scoring 128 pts per 100 possession while Washington is 4th with 123 pts p/100/poss. I want to trust the model but short-term data has me concerned. It's been over a year since they last met and they scored 245 in that game. The over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings and as mentioned we can expect Portlant's pace to increase without Nurkic in the lineup and this is not good for the under.

I will be traveling today and I will do my best to get my thought out on today's value plays

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