Anthony P's NBA Model December 30, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 30, 2022

We have 2 value plays today. Highlighted are the Pelicans. The other game is the Magic but they have 8 suspended players so we will put that game aside.

The Pels should be without Nance Jr on Friday however still show 33% EV versus the 76ers. The 76ers are fucking lazy around the boards and we saw what the Wizards did to them. Tonight they face the 6th best defensive and offensive rebounding team in the league this year. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS last 7 meetings against the Pels and they are playing 2 games under .500 on the road this year while the Pels are 15-4 at home. I expect the 76ers to lay an egg as they did in Washington a couple of nights ago however the smart money is on the 76ers and the betting handles make no freaking sense. Draftkings opened the 76ers at +3.5 which makes sense based on my projections. Betonline opened this line at +1.5 just to see it go up to +2 and this morning we saw a big move on small max bet limits moving the line to -1. The 76ers hold 40% of the handle!

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